It seems just a few short weeks ago that we started Season 18, but here we are, knocking gently upon the doors of the post season. After a few short weeks in between, we will start weeding out teams in our search for the best of open.

I am sure it did not go unnoticed that I missed sunshine week. For that I can offer only my sincerest apology. Real life has no regard for the timetables of TF2. But I was not completely idle last week, I got a great interview with two players from Sock Condoms and spent some time analyzing the league and where it stands.

A great deal of excellent analysis was already written by SpaceCadet, published by way of Tery, and I do not intend to rehash that here. It does appear that my analysis earlier in the season was correct: 11 wins will be the threshold, and 2-3 10 win teams will make it by virtue of rounds. In addition, unless The Muffin Men can succeed where no one else has and beat Seendio on a notorious soldier map, it appears that every team except Seendio will have at best a 14-2 schedule. To me, this means that the race for second and third could be neck and neck, with each team looking to best the other. I think any of our top 9 teams are more than capable of making top 4 with a little luck and a whole lot of skill. For those 9, their playoff spot is secured. (Carolina Fan Club has a free win against 5-8 legalize whaling for their snakewater make-up match, making them de-facto 11-3). I will feature some of their matches later in the article, but I will try and pay attention to the several matches that will really matter come playoffs time.

Last week saw some action from perpetual dominatrixes Seendio, or rather, SYOPS and Carolina Fan Club, as the two teams took Seendio's first rounds from their cold, dead clutch. If it was going to happen, it was going to be sunshine, and there were no real upsets, both games eventually going handily to Seendio.

In addition, ESEA announced that playoffs will be happening as best of 3 series in a single elimination bracket. While I am sad that the double elimination style is gone, the best of three will offer far more interesting games as we approach the grand finals. I have teamed up with EVLTV to help get as many of the matches broadcasted as I can, they do good work and I am excited to see that open is getting so much attention this season.

It is important for teams to not grow complacent this week. Even if a playoff spot is secured, the playoff seed never is until the very final buzzer. Life is easy for the top 8, at least for the first week. Life is even easier for the top 4, who look pretty good to make it two rounds into playoffs before being knocked into the lower bracket. A first round loss can mean trouble for an otherwise good team, so placement is key.

The math and stats portion of this writeup will come at a later time.

This season, it really will come down to the very last round. Three teams: Mumble Robots, Cloud 9 and the Widest Kids You Know just need to get one match. Mumble Robots and Widest Kids will have no problem with that, an easy schedule and probably forfeit win respectively ensure that. Cloud 9 however, will have a rough week ahead of them, but if they can continue their performance, a win against Squid Squad will get them to that 11th win. Good thing to, because their match against Animus Victoria isn't so certain. More on that match later.

The Muffin Men have had a pretty good season. Following a relatively rough first half, they dodged a long series of bullets in the back half, matching up against the Virgin Police and bwatbwatbwat after their respective deaths. When they have played, however, they have looked better than ever. A quick 5-0 against both Squid Squad and Widest Kids showed Trip taking fewer heals than ever before, while keeping up his insane damage.

When it comes to Seendio though, no one has even really come close to taking a game this season. Although last week's games against Carolina Fan Club and SYOPS showed a cumulative 3 rounds lost (their first in the whole season), I will attribute it to the map, the relative newness of it and the lack of solid, determined strategies for the talented boys of Seendio to rally around. Granary week should offer no such concession to their opponents here and in Blanc Esports. But rest assured that I will be watching this match carefully. If The Muffin Men can take a few rounds off Seendio on familiar ground, it will bode well for their chances at reaching top 3 come end of season. However, their handling under pressure will also be of interest. Can Idrae get out of losing mids? Will they be able to string together a defense and maybe a push back against the onslaught of damage? The Muffin Men will never be able to put up enough work to actually take this match, but I have faith that they can bring it to an interesting 5-2 Seendio.

To say that Cloud 9 needs this win would be a little disingenuous and unfair to the team I honestly did not expect to make it this far. With 50 rounds won, they really only need to get a couple rounds this week total to have enough to probably be in that 2-3 team 10-6 rank. However to pretend that Cloud 9 got here through any amount of actual skill displayed on their part is pure naïveté. I don't know who they bribed or how long they collectively had to spend on their knees, castrated to lpkane and his ilk, but I think they may have had the easiest season of any TF2 team ever to make it to playoffs (maybe). The thing about Cloud 9 though, is that whenever they have been asked to actually play this game against teams that have earned their rank through the power of hard work (as compared to the power of well applied suction), they have fallen flat upon their faces. Their only convincing win through the last 7 weeks has been against morin meets the eye, not a top tier team no matter how you slice the cake. Losses against The Muffin Men, Carolina Fan Club (in their prior, less competent form), Blanc Esports and Guado Glories have put them in a precarious situation where they will need to prove an awful lot if they want to actually move into playoffs.

I say an awful lot, but really I don't even mean that. Squid Squad and Animus Victoria round out their season with more of a whimper than a bang. Other teams have had to contend with Seendio or SYOPS, even Night Owls. There truly is no justice. Instead they get a superstar roster only just now finding their stride and a team barely clinging to the hopes of playoffs themselves.

Squid Squad features some talent. Alt-F-X is a competent medic, healing a very frightening, if occasionally inconsistent, Moy and photon. Bon3 and Muse round out a solid scout duo and then mana. Hi mana. The problem with Squid Squad is that they have been losing an awful lot lately. My theory is that mana felt his team was getting far too close to an assured playoff spot and he didn't want to ruin his 6 season, no open playoffs streak. Whatever the reason for their lackluster performance as of late, now is the time to cut the shit and win a bloody game. Twin losses against Animus and The Muffin Men on enigmatic sunshine don't set the best stage, but I think they have a real chance against Cloud 9 and The Widest Kids You Know.

This will be a very important match for both teams, a win here would propel Cloud 9 into a poorly deserved, but begrudgingly awarded playoff spot and line up the double win Squid Squad will need to post in order to feel secure somewhere around 12-13th seed. If they are going to lose any matches, they need to make it a hell of a close one. 50 rounds for will likely be a magic number, the low end for teams wanting to slide by on round wins alone, and at 42 as of writing, Squid Squad has a bit of a journey to make that happen. I think I may be biased against Cloud 9, but at this point in time, I need to see something more than posturing and saber-rattling on the forums. I need to see one more decisive victory against a playoff ready peer before I am ready to think of Cloud 9 as anything but feeding off the liquid luck dripping from ESEA's golden spoon. Besides, picking up carries to victory is just plain scummy. 5 delicious mid open tears to 2, Squid Squad

I have already spent a probably inordinate amount of time talking about Squid Squad, so I will make this brief. The Widest Kids U Know, headed up by JaguarFiend and my vote for strangest person in TF2: ScrewB, have done remarkable work this season. They say that criticism is easier to write than praise, but for a team almost entirely comprised of people who haven't played esea before this season and... eccentricities, a 10-4 record is a notable accomplishment. A little team drama early in the season offered some stumbling blocks with a dual loss on process, but other than that, it has been a long string of wins against largely mediocre, but occasionally competent teams all hanging about near the top of the league. A free win from bwatbwatbwat secured their playoff spot, an advance I think isn't unfair to a completely dark horse team, but a win against Squid Squad, that will show everyone they really deserve it. I think the real challenge they will face this week, and going into playoffs, will be in helping members of their team other than ScrewB and Jaguar really put in the work. The team seemed weakest on Gullywash, understandable as it is perhaps one of the harder maps to really learn and understand quickly. Familiar territory with Granary will favor the team, but I am concerned about their ability to execute advantages and keep momentum. Maintaining that momentum is perhaps key on granary, and this might spell doom for the team.

Squid Squad, for their part, really kind of need this win. 9-5 isn't great, and neither is 10-6. I expect them to claw their way through this match and give up a hell of a good fight. History wise, these teams seem relatively evenly ranked, and Widest Kids You Know has yet to have a shutout game against a close opponent. I predict a long and interesting 5-4 Squid Squad

This is the first time I have featured Its All We Know on the writeups, and really I haven't had much reason to before now. They picked up Nursey in Gullywash week and the former medic for Guado Glories has been backing up since. Other than that, I don't really know anyone on the team. Their season has been pretty unremarkable, scarred by losses against Night Owls, Squid Squad, and a variety of teams hanging about the bubble into playoffs. The only reason I hazard a mention here is because, of the teams on the bubble, they are the ones that seem most likely to get the required number of games. 9-5 isn't a stellar record, but they are the other recipients of bwatbwatbwat's last gift to open: a pair of forfeit wins to make everything interesting. This brings them to 10-5 and with a good number of round wins at 49. Honestly just that might be enough, adding in a few rounds against Morin Meets The Eye and suddenly a team has a chance at barely making playoffs. One more game however, and suddenly an 11-5 record puts them in the good company of 10-14th place. At this late stage, the rounds and games could literally come out anywhere along the spectrum, and I have a feeling a few teams that expected to place into playoffs may find themselves disappointed.

One of those teams is Morin Meets The Eye. Also 9-5, and with 4 fewer rounds, they are perhaps one of the teams that is at the greatest risk of falling short this close to the finish line. The team has had a good run thus far, but as is the story for many teams right on this cusp, fell just short of actually winning any key games. Their roster, while not phenomenal, does have Morin and Smashy, both competent players in their own right, who should more than be able to stand up to the relative nobodies in Its All We Know. But if open has taught us one thing this season, its that just because a team looks good, should be playing well and taking games, doesn't mean that there is any promise of delivering the results. Judging by their wins against other close teams, and how they were always able to put up a few rounds here and there against otherwise overpowering presences, I don't want to dismiss Morin Meets The Eye in any way. I think this team still has a little to show us, maybe in the way of an upset come playoffs. Honestly, for this team. An entry into the top 16 will suffice. 5-3 Morin Meets the Eye