Really sad that I couldn't make this match because it looked like a great one (but I think I took the W on my qualifying exams so ... prayge ); thank you to displace and co. for casting and good luck to everybody left in playoffs. I had a great time this season :).

Preds for remaining (please keep in mind I haven't played for like 2 weeks and haven't kept track of scrims):

fgp > go raw! 2-0 I think fgp are stronger on sunshine; go raw! may be able to keep it close on clearcut but I think fgp is still stronger on that map. Maybe like 5-2 sun 4-2 clearcut

Spaghetti > whales 2-1 Very hard to predict; whales has an x factor but I think spaghetti really really want this. Snakewater seemed rough for spaghetti but they had a much different roster so not sure how much that performance should be weighted. Maybe like 5-3 process (whales) 3-5 sunshine 3-4 snake?

put jeebs links in the op, should work now (thanks as always jeebs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HxGVzgNWxE

ggs; gl as well

sunshine preds: all 5-0/5-1 unless stated otherwise

fgp > BB
fgp > Head
Sidetalk > Mutiny
Sidetalk > Extine
Chicken > Jaguar

Chicken > LFP - Important for LFP playoff dreams but unfortunately I think Chicken is much stronger
Obese > LFP - See above

Obese > Spicy
Spaghetti > Head
Spaghetti > Mutiny

triiiple == spicy gl;hf
triiiple == hero's journey gl;hf

go raw! > sekt mafia - Fairly confident sekt mafia is comfortable 8th seed now; even if they (sekt mafia) win this match I don't think it matters if seeding goes by rw% afterward but it might matter if other upsets happen. Maybe like 5-2 go raw!
go raw! > Jaguar

sekt mafia > BB

Perutech > Bucket
Perutech > Extine

Hero's Journey > Bucket

- Fixed not being able to hit a player's hitbox if it extends outside the player's bounding box during an animation

Is this taunt hitboxes or something else?

W7 preds (matches are like 4-0 / 4-1 unless I pred otherwise)

Sidetalk > Balcony
Sidetalk > Jaguar

fgp > Perutech - Rounds might matter here for Perutech playoff hopes but I think fgp just stronger on paper. 4-0/4-1 for fgp.
fgp > Spicy

Chicken > Bucket
Chicken > Balcony

OW > Extine
OW > hero's journey - More playoff implications; hero's journey had a strong performance on process vs chicken. Don't think they can close it out but rounds would be nice for them. Probably 4-1 for Whales though.

triiiple == go raw! gl;hf
triiiple == pregame head gl;hf

spaghetti > hero's journey - More playoffs stuff; I think spaghetti is more dominant though. Prob 4-0/4-1
spaghetti > Perutech - Important match for Perutech; win here would be big. I think they already scrimmed though lol according to logs and got defeated pretty solidly, hopefully they can fix their mistakes and provide a good match. Prob 4-1 for spaghetti though.

go raw! > Extine

Sekt Mafia > pregame head
Sekt Mafia > mutiny

LFP > mutiny
LFP > bucket

Spicy < Jaguar - Spicy on a bit of a decline as of recent and the Jaguar team looks pretty good on koth. Like 4-2/4-3 in favor of Jaguar.

W6 preds: Most matches between playoff-predicted teams have finished so I'll prob be doing full week preds + shorter writeups for now (round preds are like 5-0 5-1 unless otherwise noted)

triiiple == extine gl;hf
triiiple == mutiny gl;hf

sidetalk > hero's journey
sidetalk > LFP

fgp > bucket
fgp > Jaguar

chicken > sekt mafia (5-2) - Pretty important match for sekt mafia's playoff dreams; rounds could be important here (and obviously a win would be huge). Hard to pred not for chicken though.
chicken > hero's journey

whales > jaguar
whales > go raw! (5-3) - Another important match; I've seen antoni work miracles on process though ...

spaghetti > go raw! - I have 0 idea what the spaghetti roster is anymore and go raw are solid, plus jason has like 200 ping for some reason now unless that's fixed. Process is a good sniper map though and deathtocats is very strong. Could see like a 5-3 either way.
spaghetti > extine

sekt mafia > bucket

LFP > balcony

spicy > head
spicy > balcony

perutech > mutiny
perutech > head

W5B preds: update broke everything edition

sidetalk > spicy - based on logs + round lengths sidetalk dominated sekt mafia and spicy got 4-0'd by chicken (but really if a match was played but there are no logs, did it ever really happen?)

fgp > sekt mafia - unless sekt mafia giga cleans up stuff I do believe this will be quite difficult, especially now with sniper x factor included

chicken > go raw! - ok now this is an interesting match; go raw! got 4-0'd by fgp although by the round lengths seems to be a bit closer than the score suggests. the frag/damage differential is very significant though. Still have to pred for chicken based on record and their strong via performance but as I said last week how go raw! do here really lets me gauge their strength much better.

obese whales > perutech - We have not played perutech and I'm not sure when we will (dear god exile please tell me team leader invite player) so I unfortunately have no data. Obese whales lost 2-4 to spaghetti which I did not expect, logs seems to indicate that whales soldiers struggled but it's also viaduct so idk take the stats with a grain of salt. Regardless whales still seem stronger on paper and as that's all I know I'm going with that.

Spaghetti > bucket - Incorrect pred last week for spaghetti but I'm going to cope and say that literally half their roster was different. Anyway I think this should be pretty dominant although I fucked up last week and simply should've believed in the samantha diff. Gulliblegoobular also kinda nice with it and S-tier alias and faith killed 9 meds which helps.

hero's > mutiny
Jaguar > 503
BB == triiiple ak gl;hf

Every team I believe in / compliment is cursed to lose so I apologize. Still think LFP > head tho

Score for W5a preds: 5/8 god I suck at this

W5a Preds:

sidetalk > sekt mafia - something something pred for sidetalk every week. Rex + k1ng have good dm which helps on koth, but the new soldier duo + sidetalk's proven roster makes me think this will probably be a 4-0 or 4-1.

fgp > go raw! - I would like to take this time to wish fgp's own taiko an early happy birthday from everybody on the spring rolls analyst desk (aka just me). Just for you I will pred in your teams favor, surely there was no way I would've done so otherwise ! I hope you have a great day, everybody on your team clearly supports you!

(go raw!'s first match vs. a top team, their performance here will really guide my perception of them in the following weeks, although koth is a bit weird. Scouty sniper on viaduct though + yate is also very good makes me think the scout diffening will happen, feel free to prove me wrong).

chicken > spicy - I tried to have a hot take for spicy last week and it backfired so I'm only on beta preds now, FUCK spicy (all is forgiven if you win this match though cause that would be extremely beast).

obese > spaghetti - is jas back yet? idk but having a sniper player on this map would certainly be nice. Gonna assume he's not and pred a strong obese > spaghetti as their snakewater performance was bit weak. They had a good performance vs sidetalk on bagel though so maybe they're a koth team? who knows.

triiiple == perutech - gl;hf

hero's > pregame head
LFP > Jaguar - think LFP are pretty solid actually
bucket < BB - actually kind of hard to pred honestly, samantha diff maybe? idk. edit: actually after thinking about it i'm going with BB but still not sure.
extine > xXx

W4B Preds

fgp > whales - Exciting match, not 100% sure what fgp roster is though. I think scouts are stronger on fgp if they have the duo I think they have which will make the difference here, although there are clearly some x factors in play...

My theory was that sacking into second seems more difficult cause it's easier to spot and spam something like lower or through saw unless you are an absolute psychopath and hit something through window. Think most 5cp mids have high skyboxes; not sure about last. But again i simply theorycraft feel free to tell me if it was owning in ur match.

sidetalk == triiiple ak - gl;hf

chicken > sweaty - spaghetti 1st half vs. fgp was uh ... yeah don't press tab.

go raw! > bucket - dominant vs perutech, better on paper etc.

spicy > perutech - Alright I've been making some incredibly soy predictions so far so my first slightly hot take is that spicy is fired up and really wants this win. If I get proven wrong I'm never having a hot take ever again

LFP > hero - Not very sure on this match but a good performance vs sekt mafia from LFP gives me a bit more confidence for them.

Jaguar > head
BB > xXx
sekt mafia > extine

I think the ban lengths make sense if you put it in the context of "this person is cheating but we need proof, what's the longest ban length that is also not completely insane for people who are just very dumb and forgetful", but if you eventually submitted it I think it's a different case than people who just not submit because they're cheating.

Granted still kinda dumb to wait so long though so an infraction is prob still warranted to make it not impossible to admin the div.

Week 4a Preds

fgp > spaghetti - fgp has a really good pickup in scouty and spaghetti has to play with a sub on flank scout (maybe even had to pick them up this weekend lol idk), plus fgp undefeated so.

sidetalk > obese whales - my strategy of simply predding for sidetalk every week has failed me, simply inconceivable. Anyway, I do think they're still stronger on paper and i think snakewater is not the best bazooka map (idk feel free to prove me wrong i'm just spitballing here).

triiiple == chicken - gl;hf

go raw! < perutech - Finally get to see go raw against a playoff contender. Perutech had a rough time last week but I imagine their soldier duo is more comfortable on this map. Have to pred for Perutech because it's very hard to gauge go raw!'s strength given their schedule but would not be surprised if this is close/raw win.

spicy > bucket - bones is released from rgl jail and is going to go nuts as a result (I have no idea about this match.)

LFP < sekt mafia - sekt mafia has to redo their soldier combo but I think they're still better on paper

Jaguar > BB - just seem better

xXx ?????? pregame head - i have no idea

W2b:

sidetalk > perutech - perutech doesn't look too good on this map, i will pred for sidetalk always anyway, etc.
fgp < chicken - no throne (who is the best flank scout do not fall for brody trolling me) but kovacs is goated
spaghetti > jaguar - oops this match already happened
triiiple = whales gl;hf
go raw > BB
hero's journey < sekt mafia
spicy > xXx
bucket > head - heal samantha will probably be enough
LFP > burnsiders if rainoflight isn't playing i think

there are also a lot of teams i have not scrimmed and don't personally know well so if people have better info for predictions feel free to chime in !!

Ah shie... guess i'll do a logs.tf analysis of the most interesting match that happened (imo)

Chickenheads vs. Perutech (for the record would've predicted chickenheads to win but perhaps not as hard as they did)

• No stats really standout except for a good flank scout performance by kovacs vs. sagejay, soldiers seem superficially even but uh....

https://i.imgur.com/nRf6Lqz.png

yeah you don't want your midfights to look like that.

Remaining matches:

sidetalk > fgp - Based on logs raven is now in over scouty. I'm probably predicting sidetalk > any team for the rest of the season though regardless, and maybe their new pickup will actually be better overall for them only time will tell.

triiiple == spaghetti - gl;hf

whales > sekt mafia - Actually a really interesting match. I have a feeling that chell team wants it more but whales has multiple x factors (beggars bazooka funny, players with experience). Last week in our match vs. sekt mafia the first half was a bit of a roll on bagel but they didn't let it get to them and brought back new force in the second half; I hope to see something similar in case they happen to go down rounds early. Would not be surprised for a close match either way or a roll by whales, may watch this on stream if I'm truly sad and don't have a friday night.

Go raw > LFP - I think go raw has that classic go 0-2 early vs. top team contenders then coast for a bit. Next week matches look more interesting for them.