Just to preface, I'm not arguing with you but I can clearly see where we differ on this subject.

In your quotes above you seem to value and want to be "better to predict" which team is better based off of RW% even though you realize the stat is skewed and can be wrong for many reasons.

I don't want to "predict" who is better. The Wins and Losses clearly do that and is not a skewed stat between teams of equal records. Simply put, you either win or lose when it matters and that should be rewarded.

Reason for a loss means nothing, everyone has a reason / excuse why they lost. Rewarding teams for getting meaningless RW% against poor teams should never be the top reason for a tiebreak. IMO you devalue the actual match wins by making other metrics more important and you can influence other factors.

Frankly, there is more incentive for teams to pick KOTH maps or to pick maps that are more defensive oriented knowing they can "salvage" their RW% when they know they cannot win the match. I would rather lose 0-4 on a KOTH map than 0-5 on a CP map or I would pick a defensive stalemate map like Snakewater and see if we can park busses and drag out a 0-3 loss or something like that. As poster #429 said, this type of rule is counter productive to making teams push for wins and play more offensively.

I appreciate the post and the stats but I don't quite understand some of this.

What is the single thing that can happen to ruin a H2H result?

No offense, but none of your stats or analysis seem to address the scheduling conflicts with some teams playing strong opponents early in the season and getting "free" 5-0 results. That weak team then dies and the other teams in the division are denied that same free 5-0.

We all know neither method is perfect and nobody is saying to remove RW% completely, it is very much needed and should continually be refined. I am saying H2H should be first and RW% secondary. Wins and Losses should ALWAYS be treated with more priority than rounds.

USA was just outclassed today IMO. We were good and had huge possession but NED never abandoned the defensive strategy and had very few holes. Really well designed strategy and executed solidly. A few breakdowns but overall NED were good and both transition goals were really nice. 3rd NED goal was just a blown coverage from our back line.

USA team badly lacks finishers. I love this team and how we are progressing. We are young, fast and have a solid team going forward but unless we can find some true finishers we will always remain outside the "elite" of the world.

I still think if Pulisic gets that first goal early the whole game would have been so much different for us. Instead of chasing everything for most of the game we could have calmed the attack down a little. How the fuck was that missed, he had the whole left side of the net to shoot. I spilled my coffee all over myself this morning when that happened.

Canada were the CONCACAF champions this last season

I do not think wins against other playoff teams should be a factor at all. I can see your point above and it does make sense when thinking about always wanting the "best 8 teams" to advance. I think what you suggest could be a highly "subjective" criteria to add and would cause way more problems. If you can include performance against the top teams they play, you also have to include performance against the bottom teams they play. #9 team beats #2 team 3-2 on Gully but lost to the #18 team 5-4 on Snakewater earlier in the season. How do you judge this difference and do you really want RGL admins to determine this?

You would also have things like schedule strength comparison and random situations like when a top team offclasses vs a bubble team. If that bubble teams wins, they are now getting more credit for beating a top team that was goofing off in week 7 or 8?? I can't see that as fair and something the admins can regulate and/or balance.

IMO its all about match performance between the tied teams to see who gets those final slots. My feeling is either you win when it matters or lose and you are out. Then teams can blame themselves instead of the league rules or an admin making a ruling.

Last thing, it also adds human bias and favoritism to the mix which is never anyone's friend. Admins are now in control over who they "think" had the tougher schedule or played the better teams? Sounds like a nightmare, I'll keep the RW% over that. :)

Map variance with pick/ban is a factor but a minor one that would be completely acceptable if RW% was secondary to H2H. The major factor that makes RW% unreliable is how scheduling is done. Not all teams have a chance to play the weakest teams before they die by mid season making the RW% an unfair balance for those lucky enough to 5-0 some hopeless teams in the first few weeks.

If compared to a professional league where all teams had a shared schedule by playing the same teams then RW% is completely fine. It would never be possible in TF2 so the rules need to adapt to account for that for balance and fairness. RW% is always a skewed stat for that reason and should not be the top determining factor for a tiebreaker.

Getting a win against another "playoff or bubble team" has way more worth than some meaningless rounds you won in week 1-3 against the lowest skill teams in the division.

Pretty solid article ranking all the Round of 16 matches IMO

Another point I made 2 seasons ago that was also ignored by the admins I spoke to mid-season.

Can't wait for USA vs NETHERLANDS. 10:00 AM TOMORROW!
Predicting 1-1 Tie and USA takes it on penalties

Really has been a great World Cup so far with the group stages done. Lots of surprises and upsets along with some major disappointments. My bracket still has hope, I got 10 out of 16 teams correct.

This is a perfect case for a tie-break rule change across the board in how this Main season ended.
4 teams are tied at 9-7 but only 3 teams can fill the remaining slots.

Using the stupid RGL rules, actual team wins/losses are discarded and Rounds Won are ahead in a tiebreaker.

nug hub should clearly be in the playoffs and be the #6 seed. They defeated all the other 9-7 teams in head to head matches. How that does not count more than rounds is beyond me.

Peru, Bunion and Minions all have 1 win and 2 losses between them. These teams are tied in Head to Head comparisons and this is where the Round rules should apply to see which teams get the 7th and 8th place slots.

I doubt anyone in RGL will listen, comprehend or consider it. I tried this in the past and always met a brick wall.

Hell yeah, I was hoping it would somehow end like that. If 2-1 Costa Rica held both Germany and Spain get knocked out. Probably would have been the biggest group upset in history.

Mexico coming alive! They need 1 more goal or a another goal from Argentina to get the goal differential for 2nd place overall. Still 30 mins left for some magic

Edit: Mexico has no excuse if they can't net another goal. Saudi Arabia has done NOTHING for the last 30 minutes. Chance after chance for Mexico players and all the pressure. They still have 20+ minutes

ARG scored again so the stats are equal right now with MEX / POL but if nothing changes Mexico will be knocked out with the stupid "Fair Play" rule. They need to find a new and better tiebreaker.

ROFL @ Iran trying so hard on every soft physical touch to get the referee to give them a gift penalty. If they had not acted so hard and badly for the final 25 mins they might have gotten a penalty call at the end.

GO USA!!!!

USA vs IRAN in 2 hours! MUST WIN

This might be the best path the USA has ever had to the Quarterfinals. It all starts with a win today vs Iran and we advance to the round of 16. We would play either Netherlands or Senegal depending on the ENG / WAL outcome.
Both SEN / NED are challenging matches but neither team is among the strongest in the tournament and very beatable. We could and probably should be very optimistic about making the Quarterfinals with this scenario.

Netherlands and Senegal just advanced into the round of 16. Heartbreaker for Ecuador, all they needed was a tie to advance.

What a day of comeback's so far!

SRB up 3-1 only for Cameroon to bounce back with 2 goals for a tie. Depending on the outcome of this BRA / SUI match all 4 teams could still be alive by the end of today but with a tie both BRA / SUI Advance.

South Korea made another 2 goal comeback today in the 2nd half only to lose a heartbreaker in the end. Good thing they put the GOAT Ian Drake announcing this game, the back 4 and goalie for South Korea all have the same last name.
Could be challenging for a rookie announcer when Kim passes to Kim across field to Kim touch pass to Kim and now a goal kick from Kim.