nablaRandom checks do not catch people for cheating, they are incentive for players to record all of their matches so AC knows those demos exist when they request them for AC purposes.
And the hill you've chosen to die on is the case of the guy who failed with that "incentive" and a ban twice in three months.
So your suggestion is what, exactly? That he shouldn't have been banned on the second offence? That he shouldn't be banned now for the third? Because unless you're suggesting it should all be forgotten after every season or 3 months he absolutely would've been banned by now.
What exactly is the "incentive" if there are no consequences?
Do you honestly believe he would've started consistently recording demos without the ban? Or would he have failed the next check as well?
nablaAntler's specific case is an example of the rule punishing somebody innocent, but isn't the end all be all of what makes this rule stupid.
Innocent? In what sense? He broke a rule, he's being punished for that. That rule is the obligation to upload demos when requested.
Is he innocent in the sense that he didn't cheat? Probably. Maybe. WE CAN'T FUCKING KNOW BECAUSE HE WON'T UPLOAD HIS DEMOS.