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Hurricane Harvey
posted in
World Events
Don't look now but the 00z Euro run...
48 hours: reemerges into gulf
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png
72 hours: second landfall at galveston
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png
96 hours: directly over houston
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png
Don't look now but the 00z Euro run...
48 hours: reemerges into gulf
[url=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png[/url]
72 hours: second landfall at galveston
[url=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png[/url]
96 hours: directly over houston
[url=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png[/url]
48 hours: reemerges into gulf
[url=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png[/url]
72 hours: second landfall at galveston
[url=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4.png[/url]
96 hours: directly over houston
[url=https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017082700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png[/url]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=scus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017082712&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0
The above is the link to the European solution, that just ran. It is showing the loop that was discussed previously, and making direct landfall over Houston. This is the fifth run of the European model to show this, so there is no reason to believe that a near or direct landfall near Houston at this point is likely possible.
I know what SpaceWeatherCity said, but I can guarantee you they will rescind their comments. At this point in time this is what we can expect :
Harvey will continue to move south and eventually make its way back over the Gulf, sometime tomorrow.
When Harvey makes its way over the Gulf, it will then head east for roughly 30 hours. During this time it will intensify, which means heavy rain bands will begin to persist as the core of the system re-intensifies, swinging moisture from the Gulf over the coast.
As Thursday approaches, Harvey will then make a Northeast turn towards Houston. Intensity at this point is unknown, we are not sure whether this will be a tropical storm or a category one hurricane - But understand that does not matter in terms of impact.
It is estimated an additional 24 to 30 inches of rain can fall in Houston metro area, on top of what has already fallen by next Thursday. I cannot overstate enough how much I hope that model is wrong, on that value.
Continue to listen very closely to your national weather service center, local fire departments, as well as emergency personnel. Their guidance right now is crucial to uphold.
this is a worst case scenario. fellow texans, good luck out there. i might be relocating to magnolia later today. if youre in need of help near there hit me up and ill see what i can do.
[quote]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=scus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017082712&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0
The above is the link to the European solution, that just ran. It is showing the loop that was discussed previously, and making direct landfall over Houston. This is the fifth run of the European model to show this, so there is no reason to believe that a near or direct landfall near Houston at this point is likely possible.
I know what SpaceWeatherCity said, but I can guarantee you they will rescind their comments. At this point in time this is what we can expect :
Harvey will continue to move south and eventually make its way back over the Gulf, sometime tomorrow.
When Harvey makes its way over the Gulf, it will then head east for roughly 30 hours. During this time it will intensify, which means heavy rain bands will begin to persist as the core of the system re-intensifies, swinging moisture from the Gulf over the coast.
As Thursday approaches, Harvey will then make a Northeast turn towards Houston. Intensity at this point is unknown, we are not sure whether this will be a tropical storm or a category one hurricane - But understand that does not matter in terms of impact.
It is estimated an additional 24 to 30 inches of rain can fall in Houston metro area, on top of what has already fallen by next Thursday. I cannot overstate enough how much I hope that model is wrong, on that value.
Continue to listen very closely to your national weather service center, local fire departments, as well as emergency personnel. Their guidance right now is crucial to uphold.[/quote]
this is a worst case scenario. fellow texans, good luck out there. i might be relocating to magnolia later today. if youre in need of help near there hit me up and ill see what i can do.
The above is the link to the European solution, that just ran. It is showing the loop that was discussed previously, and making direct landfall over Houston. This is the fifth run of the European model to show this, so there is no reason to believe that a near or direct landfall near Houston at this point is likely possible.
I know what SpaceWeatherCity said, but I can guarantee you they will rescind their comments. At this point in time this is what we can expect :
Harvey will continue to move south and eventually make its way back over the Gulf, sometime tomorrow.
When Harvey makes its way over the Gulf, it will then head east for roughly 30 hours. During this time it will intensify, which means heavy rain bands will begin to persist as the core of the system re-intensifies, swinging moisture from the Gulf over the coast.
As Thursday approaches, Harvey will then make a Northeast turn towards Houston. Intensity at this point is unknown, we are not sure whether this will be a tropical storm or a category one hurricane - But understand that does not matter in terms of impact.
It is estimated an additional 24 to 30 inches of rain can fall in Houston metro area, on top of what has already fallen by next Thursday. I cannot overstate enough how much I hope that model is wrong, on that value.
Continue to listen very closely to your national weather service center, local fire departments, as well as emergency personnel. Their guidance right now is crucial to uphold.[/quote]
this is a worst case scenario. fellow texans, good luck out there. i might be relocating to magnolia later today. if youre in need of help near there hit me up and ill see what i can do.
shit doesnt look real
[img]https://i.redditmedia.com/Bjpwoiref6Y3zutb4h0JVbhb-YYl82D6HoQbtmWfxNg.jpg?w=960&s=43e751b4fa6b1e76985feb45a762f518[/img]
shit doesnt look real
shit doesnt look real
i hope Houston is okay, but ALL cities matter guys
i hope Houston is okay, but ALL cities matter guys
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