Foreword
So with the final week of the season upon us, and my Invite writing responsibilities hanging in the air, I did what most sensible people would do in my situation and decided to help publish some Open coverage. My teammate SpaceCadet has been providing some nice writeups of his own this season and had written up some stuff regarding the Open playoffs. With no response from Uni on shadowpuppet activity, I decided to publish Space's work officially on TFTV for the community. Apologies in advance if this steps on your toes, shadowpuppet, but blame Uni on this one.
The Playoff Picture
By SpaceCadet'HX
Hello all, this week I am not going to do any "Power Rankings" because it is the last week of the season. Instead I will take a look at the final 2 Granary matches and the resulting playoff implications and seedings. After this past week's Sunshine results, the playoff clinching number is 11 wins.
This season, we had 58 teams signup for Open, which was the most since Season 14 with 69 teams. With the exception of Season 16, where we saw teams with 7-9 records qualify for playoffs, there should be a very small number of 10-6 teams that go this season. That means Rounds For is going to be a huge stat this time around and will likely knock out some of the more skilled teams in favor of teams with a more favorable final schedule.
This week will see the top teams jockey for seeding positions so I really don't care to spotlight those matches at this point. I am much more interested in the teams trying to make playoffs. That said, there are still some great matches ahead this week at the top of the division starting with #1 vs #2, Seendio vs. The Muffin Men. It should be a great match but let's breakdown playoffs.
The Top of Open
These 9 teams have clinched a playoff spot:
- Seendio (14-0)
- The Muffin Men (13-1)
- SYOPS TF2 (12-2) // I AM NOT BILLUSTER (12-2) // Animus Victoria (12-2)
- Night Owls (11-3) // Blanc Esports (11-3) // Victorious Secret (11-3)
- THE WIDEST KIDS YOU KNOW (11-4)
The Extremely Close
These 10-4 teams need only 1 victory to secure a playoff berth.
Carolina Fan Club (incoming name change soon maybe possibly perhaps)
Sitting at 10-3, Carolina and Co. are missing a match. I did some quick searching and I believe they could get scheduled on Snakewater against 5-9 powerhouse I Will Dad who are also missing a match this season. The outcome of that match is obvious and should secure the 11th win and a playoff spot. Carolina Fan Club gets a little lucky with that gift because I think it is very possible they will lose both Granary matches this week against SYOPS and I AM NOT BILLUSTER finishing 11-5.
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After an impressive Sunshine week, Mumble Robots should coast into the playoffs without much trouble at all. They should finish with a solid 12-4 record. Nice job.
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Cloud 9 might be in the most uncomfortable position for this group because they have the toughest final schedule. The match vs. Animus Victoria will be a huge challenge and likely their 5th loss. It is the match against Squid Squad that I am more focused on right now. Cloud 9 has handily defeated teams outside of the top 10 all season long and Squid Squad surely falls into that category. However, this is the final match and Squid Squad are fighting for a playoff spot as well. This could turn into a real competitive slug fest if Squid Squad happens to show up. The odds say that Cloud 9 should win and finish the season 11-5.
The Bubble
Now let us visit the 9-5 teams in the division. All of these teams essentially hold their fate in their own hands at this point.
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This team has repeatedly shirted the threshold of being a high Open team only to followup with poor performances against the top of the division. They have not been lucky with scheduling from ESEA either as all 5 losses have been against teams in the top 8. Having said that, the guys in Squid Squad have one final chance to step up to the plate and perform. Matches against Cloud 9 and THE WIDEST KIDS YOU KNOW will both be challenging at best. Squid Squad sits with 42 rounds for so even a 1-1 split this week is not going to be good enough to qualify. Flat out, they need to win both matches. I like this team and feel they are surely a top 16 team in terms of skill but I just don't see two victories happening.
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I thought Morin's team was in a great playoff position until the FFL against THE WIDEST KIDS YOU KNOW happened this Sunday. This pushes Morin's team on the bubble and essentially forces them to win both matches this week. Some might look at the schedule and think Morin and Co. got lucky because they play two mid-open teams, HEINZ AUTOMATO and Its All We Know. Think again. Heinz Automato tried to make a playoff run but fell short last week. They still have a good enough lineup to defeat Morin's team should they come to play. The other match against Its All We Know is much more interesting because they will come into the match hungry for a victory. Its All We Know's playoff life depends on this match against Morin's team and will be vital.
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This team has had no mention all season long in any Open Writeup because of their record. However, it is readily apparent that Adderall and ADD have had the #1 toughest schedule in the division. The first 8 matches had them face 5 teams in the top 16 and the other 3 were good mid-Open teams. Ever since that 3-5 start they have rattled off 6 straight wins over low/mid-Open teams and are in an excellent position to qualify for playoffs. Only 1 thing stands in their way: the Elite Pwnage Squad. Adderall and ADD will get a FFW from Uncle Drew Fanclub so if they lose against EPS, they may lack the rounds to qualify at 10-6. If they can win against EPS, they clinch a playoff berth at 11-5.
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This team has quietly hung around the bubble for the last few weeks. Along the way, they have shown they can compete and not lose without a fight having taken rounds of several teams I figured would have 5-0'd them. The record says 9-5 but they are effectively 10-5 with a FFW over the biggest choke team in open this season, bwatbwatbwat. The season essentially comes down to this final match against morin than meets the eye. They can still qualify with a loss because they will have 49 rounds coming into this match. Should they win 3-4 rounds in a loss, it might be enough to qualify at 10-6 but a victory means 11-5 and playoffs. On par with the match against Squid Squad, this is a huge step for this team. Can they show up and possibly take playoffs away from Morin?
The 8-6 Hopefuls
Let's take a look at the 8-6 teams that have a shot should they go 10-6.
Recipe for Disaster (Monkey Madness)
I had Recipe for Disaster in my Power Rankings every week since Gullywash and based on skill alone, are probably a top 16 team. However, they failed to win matches late in the season against the higher caliber teams. Several losses were very hard fought matches but 1 or 2 wins among them would have meant playoffs. This team will likely finish with a 10-6 record but with Uncle Drew Fanclub probably dead, they miss out on vital rounds in the final standings. Qualifying for playoffs is small but not impossible. They will need help from other teams.
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One of the teams that basically came out of nowhere as they rode an easy schedule through mid-open teams all season long. They do not have a win over any top 16 teams but have taken rounds here and there. This past Sunday, they had a chance to get a huge victory over Victorious Secret on Sunshine. A win would have put them at 9-6 and with a good chance to qualify for playoffs but they fell short, especially in the first half I watched. A 10-6 finish is still a possibility but I do not like their chances on winning both matches and can see a split this week against Monkey Madness and Adderall and ADD. However, should they happen to win both and go 10-6, it will mean they have 55 rounds and I believe that could be enough to secure 15th or 16th place in the standings.
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This teams finds themselves in basically the same situation as Elite Pwnage Squad, except that Donk Kongs have an easier schedule. That said, matches this week against Dedoris and Dangerzone will not be easy victories for this team. Should they secure 2 non-forfeit victories and hold a 10-6 record, they will have 55 rounds and will qualify for playoffs.
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Not much to say about this team, they played and barely beat mid-Open teams to secure 8 wins but any hope of playoffs will be destroyed this week when MaxHax and company hits them with a 5-0 on Granary. The chances of this team going 10-6 are extremely small.
The Ones who Lack Rounds
These teams could finish the season at 10-6, but with far too few rounds they will miss out on playoffs.
The Dead, May they Rest in Peace
Had these teams lived, the playoff picture this season might have been way more interesting. Oh well.
The Prediction Phase
With 9 of 16 playoff spots secured, these are my predictions for the final 7 teams to qualify.
- Mumble Robots // Cloud 9 // Carolina Fan Club // morin than meets the eye // Its All We Know // Adderall and ADD // Donk Kongs
Matches to Watch
Finally, I have spotted 4 matches that are vital to playoffs and should be of interest to anyone following this season.
Possibly the most playoff influential match of the week. Both teams need to win.
For Morin, this is another must-win against a team out to play spoiler.
ADD clinch with a victory but both teams need the win, however solid rounds for either losing team could still allow them to qualify making this match vital to the standings.
Squid Squad can throw everything I have written down the drain with 2 wins this week. This is the most vital match against a strong Cloud 9 team that needs this win to punch their own playoff ticket.