Was bored this morning so I decided to do some number crunching on open playoffs. There will be 16 teams in playoffs this season and with a 60 team division, that means several 10-6 teams will miss the cut (See s9 standings http://play.esea.net/index.php?s=league&d=standings&division_id=1709). From the s9 data, I would expect that you would need to be 10-6 with ~52 RF to be top 16 and qualify for playoffs.
That means:
These teams have secured their spot and are only playing for seeding:
indust we trust
the crunchy bunch
gettin cozy
BIG BOYS
These teams are in good position to make playoffs, needing only a few rounds in their last matches to make the cut:
Playground Tactics
Hanky Panky
Tonight's Entertainment
The Peppercock Family
These teams need 1 win + a few more rounds above that to qualify for playoffs. Father and McRib have 3 matches remaining while the other 5 have 2 to get their wins. I consider this threshold the "safe" bubble, with all of these teams more likely qualifying than not, though it's very possible one or more of them miss.
New Faith Church Gaming
trans-autistic railroad
Randy and chums
SteveC games A
Basics Octopus Emporium
Very Good Bad Boys
Zaboomacrew
After this, is the real bubble. There is 1 spot projected by me, so there should be some stiff competition for the "last" spot.
These teams have their work cut out for them, needing at least 10 more RF to qualify with a 10-6 record:
Toon Gang
open is hard
Pre-game callers
Just The Tip
Rent-a-Homies
DJINNOCIDE
These teams can qualify, but only if they run the table in their last matches.
Astronerds
Aurora Lights
Evil Villain is Lemons
DO DA DISHES
By my calculations, every other team is statically eliminated, though my RF threshold may be higher than reality.
Was bored this morning so I decided to do some number crunching on open playoffs. There will be 16 teams in playoffs this season and with a 60 team division, that means several 10-6 teams will miss the cut (See s9 standings http://play.esea.net/index.php?s=league&d=standings&division_id=1709). From the s9 data, I would expect that you would need to be 10-6 with ~52 RF to be top 16 and qualify for playoffs.
That means:
These teams have secured their spot and are only playing for seeding:
indust we trust
the crunchy bunch
gettin cozy
BIG BOYS
These teams are in good position to make playoffs, needing only a few rounds in their last matches to make the cut:
Playground Tactics
Hanky Panky
Tonight's Entertainment
The Peppercock Family
These teams need 1 win + a few more rounds above that to qualify for playoffs. Father and McRib have 3 matches remaining while the other 5 have 2 to get their wins. I consider this threshold the "safe" bubble, with all of these teams more likely qualifying than not, though it's very possible one or more of them miss.
New Faith Church Gaming
trans-autistic railroad
Randy and chums
SteveC games A
Basics Octopus Emporium
Very Good Bad Boys
Zaboomacrew
After this, is the real bubble. There is 1 spot projected by me, so there should be some stiff competition for the "last" spot.
These teams have their work cut out for them, needing at least 10 more RF to qualify with a 10-6 record:
Toon Gang
open is hard
Pre-game callers
Just The Tip
Rent-a-Homies
DJINNOCIDE
These teams can qualify, but only if they run the table in their last matches.
Astronerds
Aurora Lights
Evil Villain is Lemons
DO DA DISHES
By my calculations, every other team is statically eliminated, though my RF threshold may be higher than reality.
also the open power rankings took a break due to rl + conductor being a big baby and getting kicked off the computer. but we're going to write predz for playoffs.
also the open power rankings took a break due to rl + conductor being a big baby and getting kicked off the computer. but we're going to write predz for playoffs.
My team will win both of our games. c u @ playoffs
My team will win both of our games. c u @ playoffs
"so much shit in this bed I'm going to build a boat out of baby diapers" -Ldk, 2013
"so much shit in this bed I'm going to build a boat out of baby diapers" -Ldk, 2013
I didn't think we were out of it - at least not yet. We're at 7-6 now with 36 RF. If we were to win out, we'd be on 51 RF and a 10-6 record. That should do the trick, right?
I'm pretty sure that any team ranked #31 and up (Foobar 7-6) has a chance.
I would have waited to do this until Monday since there are a few 7-6 vs. 7-6 matches still on the docket. Once everyone finishes their 14th match I think the picture will clear up a bit.
I didn't think we were out of it - at least not yet. We're at 7-6 now with 36 RF. If we were to win out, we'd be on 51 RF and a 10-6 record. That should do the trick, right?
I'm pretty sure that any team ranked #31 and up (Foobar 7-6) has a chance.
I would have waited to do this until Monday since there are a few 7-6 vs. 7-6 matches still on the docket. Once everyone finishes their 14th match I think the picture will clear up a bit.
radiumI didn't think we were out of it - at least not yet. We're at 7-6 now with 36 RF. If we were to win out, we'd be on 51 RF and a 10-6 record. That should do the trick, right?
It's very possible that you qualify, but like I said, my guess is that 52 RF is the cuttoff. 51 may make it if I'm wrong
Also, just noticed Aurora Light's has a dead team left on their schedule, putting them at a max RF of 50. Once again, may qualfiy, but I think not.
[quote=radium]I didn't think we were out of it - at least not yet. We're at 7-6 now with 36 RF. If we were to win out, we'd be on 51 RF and a 10-6 record. That should do the trick, right?[/quote]
It's very possible that you qualify, but like I said, my guess is that 52 RF is the cuttoff. 51 may make it if I'm wrong
Also, just noticed Aurora Light's has a dead team left on their schedule, putting them at a max RF of 50. Once again, may qualfiy, but I think not.
last time open was this big (s9) there were 24 teams that made it
im fairly certain that seven maps (every map but metalworks) are in the playoff bracket
dont lose hope bubbleteams!
last time open was this big (s9) there were 24 teams that made it
im fairly certain that seven maps (every map but metalworks) are in the playoff bracket
dont lose hope bubbleteams!
mlast time open was this big (s9) there were 24 teams that made it
im fairly certain that seven maps (every map but metalworks) are in the playoff bracket
dont lose hope bubbleteams!
12:16 AM - Mushroom of Autumn: do yoyu know how many teams are going to make open playoffs?
12:18 AM - Kalkin #esea: 16
While I think a 24 team playoffs would be a great step, it looks like it isn't happening this season.
[quote=m]last time open was this big (s9) there were 24 teams that made it
im fairly certain that seven maps (every map but metalworks) are in the playoff bracket
dont lose hope bubbleteams![/quote]
12:16 AM - Mushroom of Autumn: do yoyu know how many teams are going to make open playoffs?
12:18 AM - Kalkin #esea: 16
While I think a 24 team playoffs would be a great step, it looks like it isn't happening this season.
breloommlast time open was this big (s9) there were 24 teams that made it
im fairly certain that seven maps (every map but metalworks) are in the playoff bracket
dont lose hope bubbleteams!
12:16 AM - Mushroom of Autumn: do yoyu know how many teams are going to make open playoffs?
12:18 AM - Kalkin #esea: 16
While I think a 24 team playoffs would be a great step, it looks like it isn't happening this season.
Few seasons back, I was told we were no longer allowed to do brackets with numbers that were not exponentials of two. That's why I don't do it anymore.
[quote=breloom][quote=m]last time open was this big (s9) there were 24 teams that made it
im fairly certain that seven maps (every map but metalworks) are in the playoff bracket
dont lose hope bubbleteams![/quote]
12:16 AM - Mushroom of Autumn: do yoyu know how many teams are going to make open playoffs?
12:18 AM - Kalkin #esea: 16
While I think a 24 team playoffs would be a great step, it looks like it isn't happening this season.[/quote]
Few seasons back, I was told we were no longer allowed to do brackets with numbers that were not exponentials of two. That's why I don't do it anymore.
woops, my mistake
how many open teams would there need to be to justify a 32 team bracket?
woops, my mistake
how many open teams would there need to be to justify a 32 team bracket?
From Friday until Sunday, there are a number of "elimination games", in which the loser is pretty much out. Here are the "bubble watch" games this weekend. Note: games between 9-4 or better teams have been left out for now as I feel that even the loser is in good shape heading into Week 9.
Friday's Matches:
Shiny (4-9) vs. Foobar (7-6)
Foobar cannot lose or they're finished.
Evil Villain is Lemons (7-5) vs. Drunk Girls (6-6)
Drunk Girls cannot lose or they're finished. Lemons aren't as desperate, however. If Lemons win I wouldn't bet against them to finish 11-5 and sneak in the back door.
Sunday's Matches:
Evil Villain is Lemons will FFW rep to win what will be either their 8th or 9th win this season. This is why that first game on Friday really isn't that desperate of a proposition. They're in the hunt heading into granary week regardless.
Drunk Girls (6-6) vs. DJINNOCIDE (8-5)
Once again, Drunk Girls can't lose this match. DJINNOCIDE could use a win themselves as it would allow them to drop a granary match and still be dancing at the very end. A loss from DJINNOCIDE would mean they'd have two "win or go home games" on granary.
Rent-a-Homies (8-5) vs. Astronerds (8-5)
This isn't a KO game so much as it is a "you really should win this to relieve pressure heading into granary week" game. Astronerds need it more considering who they're playing next week - beating Hanky Panky and Tonight's Entertainment on granary is a tall task.
DO DA DISHES (7-6) vs. Wu-Tang Financial (7-6)
Win or go home. At 8-6, the winner will need to sweep granary week against 2 more bubble teams in order to slip into the field. At 7-7, the loser is mathematically out and will finish with a decent mid-table record.
Lockdown (6-6) vs. NBO (7-6)
Win or go home. Lockdown will not only need this win, but will also need to win the 2nd leg of the DH in order to stay alive at 8-6. Give credit to Lockdown for climbing all the way back to even get to this point.
Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)
Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.
From Friday until Sunday, there are a number of "elimination games", in which the loser is pretty much out. Here are the "bubble watch" games this weekend. Note: games between 9-4 or better teams have been left out for now as I feel that even the loser is in good shape heading into Week 9.
[u]Friday's Matches:[/u]
[b]Shiny (4-9) vs. Foobar (7-6)[/b]
Foobar cannot lose or they're finished.
[b]Evil Villain is Lemons (7-5) vs. Drunk Girls (6-6)[/b]
Drunk Girls cannot lose or they're finished. Lemons aren't as desperate, however. If Lemons win I wouldn't bet against them to finish 11-5 and sneak in the back door.
[u]Sunday's Matches:[/u]
[i]Evil Villain is Lemons will FFW rep to win what will be either their 8th or 9th win this season. This is why that first game on Friday really isn't that desperate of a proposition. They're in the hunt heading into granary week regardless. [/i]
[b]Drunk Girls (6-6) vs. DJINNOCIDE (8-5)[/b]
Once again, Drunk Girls can't lose this match. DJINNOCIDE could use a win themselves as it would allow them to drop a granary match and still be dancing at the very end. A loss from DJINNOCIDE would mean they'd have two "win or go home games" on granary.
[b]Rent-a-Homies (8-5) vs. Astronerds (8-5)[/b]
This isn't a KO game so much as it is a "you really should win this to relieve pressure heading into granary week" game. Astronerds need it more considering who they're playing next week - beating Hanky Panky and Tonight's Entertainment on granary is a tall task.
[b]DO DA DISHES (7-6) vs. Wu-Tang Financial (7-6)[/b]
Win or go home. At 8-6, the winner will need to sweep granary week against 2 more bubble teams in order to slip into the field. At 7-7, the loser is mathematically out and will finish with a decent mid-table record.
[b]Lockdown (6-6) vs. NBO (7-6)[/b]
Win or go home. Lockdown will not only need this win, but will also need to win the 2nd leg of the DH in order to stay alive at 8-6. Give credit to Lockdown for climbing all the way back to even get to this point.
[b]Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)[/b]
Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WgT9gy4zQA[/youtube]
Goodluck to everyone in playoffs.
Should be interesting there are a lot of fringe teams that are going to fight it out this season.
Should be interesting there are a lot of fringe teams that are going to fight it out this season.
radium
Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)
Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.
I'm thinking we still have a shot as well. If we win the next 3, we'll be 9 - 7 w/ 48 RF
[quote=radium]
[b]Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)[/b]
Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.[/quote]
I'm thinking we still have a shot as well. If we win the next 3, we'll be 9 - 7 w/ 48 RF
Snazradium
Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)
Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.
I'm thinking we still have a shot as well. If we win the next 3, we'll be 9 - 7 w/ 48 RF
with a 52 team division, a team at 10-6 was 17th. There is no way 9-7 makes playoffs.
[quote=Snaz][quote=radium]
[b]Lockdown (6-6) vs. EmberCore Gaming (6-7)[/b]
Embercore will finish mid-table, but could spoil the hopes of Lockdown this week with a badlands win here. Lockdown cannot lose this match or they're eliminated.[/quote]
I'm thinking we still have a shot as well. If we win the next 3, we'll be 9 - 7 w/ 48 RF[/quote]
with a 52 team division, a team at 10-6 was 17th. There is no way 9-7 makes playoffs.
9-7 can make it if hell freezes over. You'd need about 10-12 teams to bottle it late and finish 9-7 just so that you have the opportunity to survive.
After Sunday night, you're going to have a pack of 9-5 teams and 8-6 teams. You'll need the 8-6 teams to knock off the 9-5 teams AND for the 8-6 teams to beat each other up a little too.
I think if you win out you will still fall short. With that said, you won't miss by much since the final week is going to be a bloodbath in middle of the table.
9-7 can make it if hell freezes over. You'd need about 10-12 teams to bottle it late and finish 9-7 just so that you have the opportunity to survive.
After Sunday night, you're going to have a pack of 9-5 teams and 8-6 teams. You'll need the 8-6 teams to knock off the 9-5 teams AND for the 8-6 teams to beat each other up a little too.
I think if you win out you will still fall short. With that said, you won't miss by much since the final week is going to be a bloodbath in middle of the table.
We clinched last night, I thought. OH WELL I GUESS WE HAVE TO BEAT SHLANER'S TEAM LOL
(I love Shlaner)
We clinched last night, I thought. OH WELL I GUESS WE HAVE TO BEAT SHLANER'S TEAM LOL
(I love Shlaner)
Remember that S11 Open with 59 teams had 16 in playoffs, too. And the worst was 10-6 with ~50 RF (albeit with way more dead teams that season). No way 9-7 teams will make it.
Remember that S11 Open with 59 teams had 16 in playoffs, too. And the worst was 10-6 with ~50 RF (albeit with way more dead teams that season). No way 9-7 teams will make it.
I love your pieces breloom. This definitely settles any questions i had about making playoffs. Can't wait for playoff predictions.
I love your pieces breloom. This definitely settles any questions i had about making playoffs. Can't wait for playoff predictions.
It'd be pretty cool if we made playoffs (I play med on foobar) considering it's my first season in ESEA and I don't really main medic. It's been a bit of a tough season for us as we've been playing with at least two different people in matches and scrims every week.
Good luck to everyone else though, despite the setbacks I've enjoyed my first season in open.
It'd be pretty cool if we made playoffs (I play med on foobar) considering it's my first season in ESEA and I don't really main medic. It's been a bit of a tough season for us as we've been playing with at least two different people in matches and scrims every week.
Good luck to everyone else though, despite the setbacks I've enjoyed my first season in open.
I wish my team had practiced for snakewater week. We would have already secured a playoff spot :/
I wish my team had practiced for snakewater week. We would have already secured a playoff spot :/
I wish we didn't have to play a 5v6 early in the season so we would be 10-3 instead of 9-4
I wish we didn't have to play a 5v6 early in the season so we would be 10-3 instead of 9-4
That happened to us too. Viaduct. 5v6
That happened to us too. Viaduct. 5v6
thanks for the write up.
Looking forward to making playoffs in my first season.
c4shEVIL PLAYOFFS OR BUST!
HURRAAA
thanks for the write up.
Looking forward to making playoffs in my first season.
[quote=c4sh]EVIL PLAYOFFS OR BUST![/quote]
HURRAAA
TwitchTVJohnWe clinched last night, I thought.
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)
[quote=TwitchTVJohn]We clinched last night, I thought.[/quote]
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)
clamTwitchTVJohnWe clinched last night, I thought.
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)
So you lost to one person? Lol you lost 1v6.
:P
[quote=clam][quote=TwitchTVJohn]We clinched last night, I thought.[/quote]
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)[/quote]
So you lost to one person? Lol you lost 1v6.
:P
TwitchTVJohnclamTwitchTVJohnWe clinched last night, I thought.
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)
So you lost to one person? Lol you lost 1v6.
Well, maybe not JUST to him. But he did do a fuckton and you can't debate that.
http://i.imgur.com/YvKQFEl.png
[quote=TwitchTVJohn][quote=clam][quote=TwitchTVJohn]We clinched last night, I thought.[/quote]
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)[/quote]
So you lost to one person? Lol you lost 1v6.[/quote]
Well, maybe not JUST to him. But he did do a fuckton and you can't debate that.
[img]http://i.imgur.com/YvKQFEl.png[/img]
clamTwitchTVJohnclamTwitchTVJohnWe clinched last night, I thought.
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)
So you lost to one person? Lol you lost 1v6.
Well, maybe not JUST to him. But he did do a fuckton and you can't debate that.
http://i.imgur.com/YvKQFEl.png
Yeah, it just irks me that people bitch when nobody seems to care that Eulogy and Mackey are on the same team in open. We'll be in IM next season, so people can stop bitching about a good player destroying them. Neither of us have played in like 3 years. He's still good. I'm not. :P
[quote=clam][quote=TwitchTVJohn][quote=clam][quote=TwitchTVJohn]We clinched last night, I thought.[/quote]
maaan, i don't even know how that happened
(zalfy)[/quote]
So you lost to one person? Lol you lost 1v6.[/quote]
Well, maybe not JUST to him. But he did do a fuckton and you can't debate that.
[img]http://i.imgur.com/YvKQFEl.png[/img][/quote]
Yeah, it just irks me that people bitch when nobody seems to care that Eulogy and Mackey are on the same team in open. We'll be in IM next season, so people can stop bitching about a good player destroying them. Neither of us have played in like 3 years. He's still good. I'm not. :P