I've looked for this but as it seems to be a pretty new thing I don't think anyone is confident enough to model it seeing as there isn't much historically to go on. There have definitely been a sizeable chunk of early votes cast in a more Trump hostile atmosphere, but at the same time the Clinton backlash was pretty big in the last few days too and who that might motivate to turn out early and why is open to question.

If Clinton takes a lot of states that have ended up polling on a knife edge then it could certainly be a reason why, I'll be interested in how it gets unpicked after the election.

You see this is the problem, Nate Silver as a person is irrelevant, the methodology is what matters and as it's public you can freely asses it. As I said, not really for kids.

I didn't say it was my only source, once again not reading what I've written. I'm encouraging you to find your own information, I have no interest in changing your opinion. Wasn't a problem when Trump was gaining with all guns blazing. There seems to be a reasonable consensus that Trump has around a one in three chance right now. Those are pretty good odds considering how the campaign has gone. Roll some dice a few times and see how hard it is to hit 1 in 3. Not that hard right?

I know you would have made the same posts, that's what being in a Trump supporting echo chamber is. I have literally no bias in this election, both candidates share my contempt equally.

Tweet the head guy

538 popularised it but they're far from the only poll analysing outfit these days. If you're interested they're not hard to find for yourself, but they tend to be kind of boring and not for kids. If you're interested in Bill Clinton sex demon or Hillary Clinton jihad secret agent then I doubt they're really something you'd read much of. Feel free to make up something about them being run by members of Bill Clinton's paedophile ring or similar.

Funnily enough when Trump was steaming earlier in the week and I pointed out the poll evidence there weren't any doubters. Shocking I know.

Are you trying to demonstrate your inability to engage your basic critical faculties in the most rudimentary way or am I missing something?

Not interested in hearing about how they're satanically controlled sex offender infested hell holes thanks. I'll leave you to the fantasy world, but if you like you can see the example of how the paranoia shut down rational debate. Democratic eh?

Serious public opinion analysis organisations with a track record of neutral and dispassionate success maake me think so. If people believed the lurid claims in any significant numbers she's be far more toxic than Trump and stand no chance whatsoever. You are either a blind moron to rely on such an absurdly meaningless sample as "people you talk to" to draw your macroscopic conclusions or you're one of the self appointed army of Trump trolls mindlessly spreading this flimsy crap that you think passes for politics. The fact is if Clinton hadn't stupidly shot herself in the foot with the email server Trump would be nowhere. This cospiracy crap is a total electoral irrelevance, you're a meaningless minority talking to eachother in an echo chamber.

Trump currently has an outside chance of around 33%. It's down to getting voters to turn out at this stage.

But they don't believe it do they? Reading comprehension, it's not hard

Central Blizzard contracts will almost certainly be better than the standard esports equivalent. Even so I'd urge OW players to start collective bargaining immediately

Trump's poll progress has stalled and Clinton's lead is solidifying at around 4 points. He'll need another breakthrough moment to win, but something people will believe and care about rather than satanic dinners, paedo island and Hillary jihadi. Sorry for the slightly mad inhabitants of the thread for this disappointing news.

That link is fucking gold: "Politics Explained" Bwahahahaha!

Bird noises just made a bad job of recognising the situation quickly enough when they could have stopped it developing then couldn't deal with it. It can't become a common part of the meta because it relies on being unexpected, it takes forever to set up and they should have been crushed doing that.

Also the last two times I've seen the round timer reset in a competitive match it was on Snakewater. Not a coincidence.

I'd have thought his agenda was pretty transparent - get out of the Venezuelan embassy.

The only question is how he thinks the US election plays into that. If he doesn't merely espouse the theory that the US is behind the Swedish case against him but genuinely believes it then I imagine Trump would be his only real chance of the accusations being lifted.

By this point both major parties and their senior politicians and officials in the US will be quite happy to see him put behind bars so I'd have thought backing an outsider and helping him as much as possible would be his only way out of the situation. Even if the Swedes did drop the charges he's still broken laws in the UK that could see him detained and therefore extradited so he's in need of quite a bit of help.

With the current poll situation if Wikileaks has anything truly explosive to publish then there's a good chance that it will swing the election in Trump's favour. However I think if they had the ammo they'd have used it already. It doesn't make sense to indulge in such brinkmanship with an election date, if manipulating the election is their agenda they'd want to allow time for the Trump campaign to properly exploit the material and disseminate it's most lurid interpretations.

Time is running short for something like that to come together coherently. Although there'd be an initial feeding frenzy it wouldn't support the kind of sustained development of an attacking narrative the Trump campaign would want. If they do have the emails and their contents were disappointingly benign then a late release might make sense - the longer Wikileaks waits the less likely they are to contain anything new or interesting, or of course the less likely they have them at all.

In actual election news (sorry, I know we're mostly here to disseminate the most infantile and flimsy propaganda imaginable) Trump's developed an actual chance of winning over the last week. 538 has Nevada on the cusp of going Republican and just New Hampshire or Colorado would need to fall for a potential Trump win

http://i.imgur.com/ETxpcvv.png

Given that tens of millions of votes have already been cast in a much more Trump hostile climate current trends might not impact the result as you might expect, but there's definitely a path to victory for Trump now whereas two weeks ago there was nothing. I don't think the smears on Clinton's assistant are likely to cut the mustard though.

As I said, facile.