who is winning?

#1

KevinIsPwn

newbie.tf

0 Frags – +

hey, i have a really important question: who's winning? red or blu?

is there a way to know this based on logs data?

this is an important question to me. thank you

edit: read #9 for details on $100 bounty

hey, i have a really important question: who's winning? red or blu?

is there a way to know this based on logs data?

this is an important question to me. thank you

edit: read #9 for details on $100 bounty

#2

nowah

1 Frags – +

team

#3

THEBILLDOZER

57 Frags – +

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/240693342248239104/827736221278535680/unknown.png

if blu team were winning, it feels like wed see more of them

[img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/240693342248239104/827736221278535680/unknown.png[/img]
if blu team were winning, it feels like wed see more of them

#4

zanda

22 Frags – +

red always wins in the meet the team videos

#5

Trotz21

-11 Frags – +

red sus

#6

scrambled

15 Frags – +

trick question
in tf2 no one wins

#7

pajaro

-4 Frags – +

personally i think theodore is, but simon is definitely close. alvin is certainly not winning.

#8

prsn

-3 Frags – +

blu are scums

#9

KevinIsPwn

newbie.tf

12 Frags – +

it is 12 hours later and i have sobered up. i apologize for asking such a ridiculous question....

....without offering some kind of incentive to answer it. $100 venmo'd (or keys) to anyone who can tell me out of all logs available on logs.tf the win/tie/loss rate of red/blu on each of these maps AND overall for 6v6 games*:

process
product
snakewater
ultiduo baloo
villa

Show Content

*must log methodology and system, be able to prove validity. first person to post gets the $$$

it is 12 hours later and i have sobered up. i apologize for asking such a ridiculous question....

....without offering some kind of incentive to answer it. $100 venmo'd (or keys) to anyone who can tell me out of all logs available on logs.tf the win/tie/loss rate of red/blu on each of these maps AND overall for 6v6 games*:

process
product
snakewater
ultiduo baloo
villa

[spoiler]*must log methodology and system, be able to prove validity. first person to post gets the $$$[/spoiler]

#10

ProudDoesAThing

-4 Frags – +

Blu’s the best, don’t even get me started.

#11

jimmij

-3 Frags – +

I looked at all the logs and red wins

#12

Bv

18 Frags – +

KevinIsPwn

Based on the current data on demoticks.tf :
Logs in the DB: 25k of which ~5k are duplicates
That leaves 14957 6s logs.
Blue wins 6482/14957 (43%) of the time and red does so 6943/14957 (46%) of the time.
I know that this doesn't even come close to the 2.8 million logs on logs.tf but it might be a decent approximation (at least for more recent matches)
Pretty sure the guy who hosts trends.tf could easily give you a better approximation.
I feel like looking at ALL logs from logs.tf is a bad idea since from my experience you can easily ddos the site when requesting too much data.
I'm considering adding more logs to the DB but I'd at most get the last 1 million logs or so. If that would satisfy your desire of finding out which team wins more on average let me know! (I'd publish more stats for maps etc. as well)

[quote=KevinIsPwn][/quote]
Based on the current data on demoticks.tf :
Logs in the DB: 25k of which ~5k are duplicates
That leaves 14957 6s logs.
Blue wins 6482/14957 (43%) of the time and red does so 6943/14957 (46%) of the time.
I know that this doesn't even come close to the 2.8 million logs on logs.tf but it might be a decent approximation (at least for more recent matches)
Pretty sure the guy who hosts trends.tf could easily give you a better approximation.
I feel like looking at ALL logs from logs.tf is a bad idea since from my experience you can easily ddos the site when requesting too much data.
I'm considering adding more logs to the DB but I'd at most get the last 1 million logs or so. If that would satisfy your desire of finding out which team wins more on average let me know! (I'd publish more stats for maps etc. as well)

#13

Stepanex

5 Frags – +

BvKevinIsPwn

twiikuu made a python script for getting the logs, he also has 2.4 million logs here, so you would just have to download ~500k logs. Using that script it should take ~3 days.

[quote=Bv][quote=KevinIsPwn][/quote] [/quote]
twiikuu made [url=connect 94.130.143.254:27165; password cYcWr2EFoX]a python script[/url] for getting the logs, he also has [url=https://mega.nz/#F!l9oGiKCb!lTWT2RSkTYv-TJZb92_ksA]2.4 million logs here[/url], so you would just have to download ~500k logs. Using that script it should take ~3 days.

#14

tojo

8 Frags – +

can I have the hundred dollars as consolation for reading the post

#15

Bv

4 Frags – +

Stepanextwiikuu made a python script

Didn't know about the mega archive that's dope!
I'll download the files today and will post the results in one or two days! Thanks a lot!
Downloading the last 500k logs should be faster with my internal stuff I've setup for demoticks.tf so I'll use that instead.
~~Edit: Current ETA to download the last 500k logs: ~4 hours~~ I'll create a proper stats page soon for demoticks.tf should hopefully be done by the end of the week.
Edit2: Saw waldos post but just in case anyone cares here's a basic overview for the data for the last 2400k logs

[quote=Stepanex]
twiikuu made [url=connect 94.130.143.254:27165; password cYcWr2EFoX]a python script[/url][/quote]
Didn't know about the mega archive that's dope!
I'll download the files today and will post the results in one or two days! Thanks a lot!
Downloading the last 500k logs should be faster with my internal stuff I've setup for demoticks.tf so I'll use that instead.
[s]Edit: Current ETA to download the last 500k logs: ~4 hours[/s] I'll create a proper stats page soon for demoticks.tf should hopefully be done by the end of the week.
Edit2: Saw waldos post but just in case anyone cares [url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dEfuSMYbSu6XsucdCj0xDc8elSB-G3FO4C8wdHQrGgM/edit?usp=sharing]here's[/url] a basic overview for the data for the last 2400k logs

#16

KevinIsPwn

newbie.tf

1 Frags – +

BvStepanextwiikuu made a python scriptDidn't know about the mega archive that's dope!
I'll download the files today and will post the results in one or two days! Thanks a lot!
Downloading the last 500k logs should be faster with my internal stuff I've setup for demoticks.tf so I'll use that instead.

looking forward to the result!! :)

[quote=Bv][quote=Stepanex]
twiikuu made [url=connect 94.130.143.254:27165; password cYcWr2EFoX]a python script[/url][/quote]
Didn't know about the mega archive that's dope!
I'll download the files today and will post the results in one or two days! Thanks a lot!
Downloading the last 500k logs should be faster with my internal stuff I've setup for demoticks.tf so I'll use that instead.[/quote]
looking forward to the result!! :)

#17

crackbabydumpster

25 Frags – +

this is why i wanted every log combined highfive COME ON MAN

#18

Waldo

28 Frags – +

Total logs seen: 2761285
Sixes overall data:
red:
Wins: 687879/1505856 = 0.45680264248374347
Loss: 702667/1505856 = 0.4666229705894853
Ties: 115310/1505856 = 0.07657438692677122
blu:
Wins: 702667/1505856 = 0.4666229705894853
Loss: 687879/1505856 = 0.45680264248374347
Ties: 115310/1505856 = 0.07657438692677122
By map:
process
red:
Wins: 211045/472281 = 0.44686320220377274
Loss: 221659/472281 = 0.46933711074550954
Ties: 39577/472281 = 0.08379968705071769
blu:
Wins: 221659/472281 = 0.46933711074550954
Loss: 211045/472281 = 0.44686320220377274
Ties: 39577/472281 = 0.08379968705071769
((product)|(viaduct))
red:
Wins: 144088/293807 = 0.49041717862406276
Loss: 144784/293807 = 0.4927860806583914
Ties: 4935/293807 = 0.01679674071754587
blu:
Wins: 144784/293807 = 0.4927860806583914
Loss: 144088/293807 = 0.49041717862406276
Ties: 4935/293807 = 0.01679674071754587
((snake)|(snack))
red:
Wins: 121982/269120 = 0.453262485136742
Loss: 124347/269120 = 0.4620503864447087
Ties: 22791/269120 = 0.08468712841854935
blu:
Wins: 124347/269120 = 0.4620503864447087
Loss: 121982/269120 = 0.453262485136742
Ties: 22791/269120 = 0.08468712841854935
ultiduo_baloo
red:
Wins: 77280/162308 = 0.47613179880227713
Loss: 81457/162308 = 0.5018668211055524
Ties: 3571/162308 = 0.022001380092170442
blu:
Wins: 81457/162308 = 0.5018668211055524
Loss: 77280/162308 = 0.47613179880227713
Ties: 3571/162308 = 0.022001380092170442
villa
red:
Wins: 2089/4807 = 0.43457457873933847
Loss: 2246/4807 = 0.4672352818805908
Ties: 472/4807 = 0.09819013938007073
blu:
Wins: 2246/4807 = 0.4672352818805908
Loss: 2089/4807 = 0.43457457873933847
Ties: 472/4807 = 0.09819013938007073

#19

toads_tf

5 Frags – +

dont trust these numbers, they were conjured out of thin air by the blue spy.............

#20

brody

6 Frags – +

Waldo827049372409856218375609324857209834650198347650239845

https://i.imgur.com/pxviWVN.png

blu owns i guess (second set of percentages removes ties from the total, for a more direct red vs blu comparison)

[quote=Waldo]827049372409856218375609324857209834650198347650239845[/quote]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/pxviWVN.png[/img]

blu owns i guess (second set of percentages removes ties from the total, for a more direct red vs blu comparison)

#21

Poptobob

18 Frags – +

how do 1.68% of games on product tie

#22

Smithsonian

20 Frags – +

Poptobobhow do 1.68% of games on product tie

scrims where you unexec at 2-2

[quote=Poptobob]how do 1.68% of games on product tie[/quote]
scrims where you unexec at 2-2

#23

hamaham

7 Frags – +

if blue is winning more games dose this mean we should make maps more red favored?

#24

KevinIsPwn

newbie.tf

3 Frags – +

Waldo

accept my fr :)

[quote=Waldo][/quote]

accept my fr :)

#25

nowah

9 Frags – +

I'm wondering how blue has a 3% advantage on simple maps like Baloo or other 1:1 Rotational maps?
Do Better players just always pick blue?
Is there some secret difference in how our brains see red vs blue?
Is the game just rigged?

#26

turbochad69

5 Frags – +

for baloo specifically, it could be that red players stand out from the background more and are thus slightly easier to aim at

#27

KevinIsPwn

newbie.tf

16 Frags – +

https://i.ibb.co/ykYVQRT/image.png

bounty delivered (to the rats. what a twist!!)

[img]https://i.ibb.co/ykYVQRT/image.png[/img]

bounty delivered (to the rats. what a twist!!)