Playoff matches are out! Go decide the maps and schedule them! Keep in mind it is a best of 3 FULL maps, so be prepared for a long haul match. Challonge if you want to see a visual bracket
TFTV will be covering Goblin Zone vs. late stage TF2 so I've got my sights on #2 The Agency vs. #7 TNR. Though we could've had SpireIQ vs. Agency if it was a four team playoffs... Anyway, during the regular season these two teams met up week 2 on Gullywash (with the original TNR roster) where The Agency took a 5-3 win. Now with a late-season revamp on TNR's side, they hope to make an upset happen. The winner of this series will go on to face SpireIQ, so if Agency wins we'll still get that matchup in the same part of the bracket had it been a four team double elimination style bracket.
Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6047&r=40
Maps: Gullywash, Metalworks, Snakewater
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6047&r=40
Maps: Gullywash, Metalworks, Snakewater
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
I'll be joining tery on the cast, just to shit talk exile
Big stats post here for playoffs matches:
I've been running a program that grabs scrim/match logs throughout the season and predicts the chance of teams taking rounds off one another for the purposes of match prediction.
The system is pretty simple, using all of a team's match/scrim history this season, it looks at the ratios of rounds won/lost of each team against one another and tries to determine a score that could be loosely interpreted as a 'skill level' for each team. If team A has score a and team B has score b then the chance of team A winning a round follows a logistic curve: 1/(1+e^(b-a)). To illustrate this, look at the following graph:
https://i.imgur.com/nDSFI6S.png
This allows you to get a sense of not only what the ranking of teams might look like, but also how much better than the other teams they are.
As of posting this, the team scores look something like this:
https://i.imgur.com/0wVcOvY.png
This would indicate that there is a fair gap between the top 3 teams and the other teams in advanced. This correlates relatively well with teams' positions in RGL, the team that I find most noticeably different is MySpectrumWiFi98-5G who seem pretty under rated by this metric. This might be because of underperformance in scrims, or because the team improved later into the season (something this isn't trying to evaluate).
Because this model is based on rounds, it can predict the outcomes of future games. However, there's a big problem with this as for whatever reason, under the RGL format it pretty much always expects games to go to winlimit. (This is because it's based on historical round duration, and I suspect because longer rounds tend to be cut off by going to timelimit).
In any case, here are predictions for tonights 3 games, which as I post this are probably near the end of the 1st half anyway (I'm a bit late to post this).
https://i.imgur.com/9C0iRwx.png
https://i.imgur.com/QaAeSS5.png
https://i.imgur.com/iXz84be.png
In theory these would be different for different maps, just because of the round durations, but because of the winlimit thing, it doesn't make much of a difference which map I choose. The chance of winning a round is probably different for different teams, but I don't know if I can easily estimate this, as the problem goes from having 16 dimensions to 121.
I've been running a program that grabs scrim/match logs throughout the season and predicts the chance of teams taking rounds off one another for the purposes of match prediction.
The system is pretty simple, using all of a team's match/scrim history this season, it looks at the ratios of rounds won/lost of each team against one another and tries to determine a score that could be loosely interpreted as a 'skill level' for each team. If team A has score a and team B has score b then the chance of team A winning a round follows a logistic curve: 1/(1+e^(b-a)). To illustrate this, look at the following graph:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/nDSFI6S.png[/img]
This allows you to get a sense of not only what the ranking of teams might look like, but also how much better than the other teams they are.
As of posting this, the team scores look something like this:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/0wVcOvY.png[/img]
This would indicate that there is a fair gap between the top 3 teams and the other teams in advanced. This correlates relatively well with teams' positions in RGL, the team that I find most noticeably different is MySpectrumWiFi98-5G who seem pretty under rated by this metric. This might be because of underperformance in scrims, or because the team improved later into the season (something this isn't trying to evaluate).
Because this model is based on rounds, it can predict the outcomes of future games. However, there's a big problem with this as for whatever reason, under the RGL format it pretty much always expects games to go to winlimit. (This is because it's based on historical round duration, and I suspect because longer rounds tend to be cut off by going to timelimit).
In any case, here are predictions for tonights 3 games, which as I post this are probably near the end of the 1st half anyway (I'm a bit late to post this).
[img]https://i.imgur.com/9C0iRwx.png[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/QaAeSS5.png[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/iXz84be.png[/img]
In theory these would be different for different maps, just because of the round durations, but because of the winlimit thing, it doesn't make much of a difference which map I choose. The chance of winning a round is probably different for different teams, but I don't know if I can easily estimate this, as the problem goes from having 16 dimensions to 121.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oL0YXzkx4sI[/youtube]
the majority of the first round matches were close, is that evidence for 8 team playoffs rather than 4 team?
dbkthe majority of the first round matches were close, is that evidence for 8 team playoffs rather than 4 team?
Daf's Ego Is Already The Size Of The Sun, Please Do Not Mention This To Him.
In other news, round 2 of playoffs is out! Unofficial challonge bracket for the viewing pleasure
Daf's Ego Is Already The Size Of The Sun, Please Do Not Mention This To Him.
In other news, round 2 of playoffs is out! Unofficial [url=https://challonge.com/RGLADVS2PLAYOFFS]challonge[/url] bracket for the viewing pleasure
I’m going to be casting one of the semifinal matches tomorrow, let me know which one you’d like to see.
https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126
Unicorn_WizardI’m going to be casting one of the semifinal matches tomorrow, let me know which one you’d like to see.
https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126
do you plan on casting with tery
https://strawpoll.com/6c6gw126[/quote]
do you plan on casting with tery
loafedo you plan on casting with tery
As Invite and Advanced are all happening tomorrow, I will likely grab whichever Advanced game Uni isn't. The more coverage the better.
As Invite and Advanced are all happening tomorrow, I will likely grab whichever Advanced game Uni isn't. The more coverage the better.
Alright, based on results, I will be casting Agency vs SpireIQ tonight at 10:30 EST. The battle of circlejerks heats up in a best of 3 on Clearcut, Process, with a decider of Metalworks. Hopefully we'll be in for a long, fun night of TF2!
https://www.twitch.tv/uni_wizard
And across the pond, I'll provide coverage for #1 seed Happy Kronge Bois vs. #4 seed Goblin Zone in the semifinal round, with the winner punching their ticket into grand finals. The only loss Kronge Bois had during the regular season was coincidentally at the hands of The Goblin Zone way back during week two, in a 5-4 Gullywash thriller. Similarly, Goblin Zone lost to SpireIQ and The Agency, the other top teams in the division. During first round, Happy Kronge Bois dispatched Bystander Effect with ease. Meanwhile, The Goblin Zone had a crazy close set with late stage TF2 that went the full three map distance. Either way, we should be in for a good set.
Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
Tery_And across the pond, I'll provide coverage for #1 seed Happy Kronge Bois vs. #4 seed Goblin Zone in the semifinal round, with the winner punching their ticket into grand finals. The only loss Kronge Bois had during the regular season was coincidentally at the hands of The Goblin Zone way back during week two, in a 5-4 Gullywash thriller. Similarly, Goblin Zone lost to SpireIQ and The Agency, the other top teams in the division. During first round, Happy Kronge Bois dispatched Bystander Effect with ease. Meanwhile, The Goblin Zone had a crazy close set with late stage TF2 that went the full three map distance. Either way, we should be in for a good set.
Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj
Match: https://rgl.gg/Public/Match.aspx?m=6120&r=40
Maps: Process, Metalworks, Granary.
Stream: twitch.tv/terywj[/quote]
[img]https://i.ibb.co/qN4cDQz/mDp7eYT.jpg[/img]
Updated team scores (unlikely to change much this far into the season):
https://i.imgur.com/eSLUT2X.png
Predictions for Agency vs SpireIQ:
https://i.imgur.com/72XvfTV.png
Koth:
https://i.imgur.com/YVCMPAW.png
Predictions for Happy Kronge Bois vs Goblin Zone:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/eSLUT2X.png[/img]
Predictions for Agency vs SpireIQ:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/72XvfTV.png[/img]
Koth:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/YVCMPAW.png[/img]
Predictions for Happy Kronge Bois vs Goblin Zone:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/CEJJOsF.png[/img]
And with that we have our grand finalists! Match is scheduled, go do your map bans! Also the post season survey is out! Have a map you didn't like, like granary? Vote it out! Didn't like the point system, like granary? Vote it out! Unofficial challonge bracket for viewing pleasure
Well apparently the 3rd place match is a thing and happening tonight at 10:30 so I’m gonna be casting that as well!
Wednesday, April 1st, 2020 10:30 PM EDT
$20 says the april fools joke of the match is going to be the n word
RGL thank you for banning me for 3 months for using the sniper scope in a scrim despite removing it for every match I played. Even when I played a total of 38 seconds of sniper the entire season of Advanced.
I am sorry for the 25 seconds of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.
Shouldve read the RGL textbook
I am sorry for the [url=https://www.twitch.tv/yerbb1/clip/FurtiveCreativeFriesAsianGlow?filter=clips&range=7d&sort=time]25 seconds[/url] of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.
[spoiler]RGL does not tolerate cheating in TF2 in any form. If RGL receives evidence (demos, server or anti-cheat software logs, etc) of someone cheating anywhere in TF2 (including public servers, scrims and PUGs (Pick-Up Games)), that person will be subject to league penalties.
Shouldve read the RGL textbook
[/spoiler]
yerb
I am sorry for the 25 seconds of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.
We can not. You are dead to our community. How dare you.
I am sorry for the [url=https://www.twitch.tv/yerbb1/clip/FurtiveCreativeFriesAsianGlow?filter=clips&range=7d&sort=time]25 seconds[/url] of sniper I played with the removal script in a scrim. I hope the TF2 community can forgive me as I've learned my lesson.
[/quote]
We can not. You are dead to our community. How dare you.
I’m assuming RGL or tftv will be casting it. But if they don’t, I’ll be casting the grand finals tomorrow.
The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.
The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.
The year is 2020. Scratch has won advanced 6s. Perfection and Akemi are in invite highlander playoffs. B4nny has been living on a friendly discount under tyrone's roof for years now, being the only person to ever successfully live off tf2. He now questions his life career choices seeing these up and comers coming for his throne.
gxq did it for the vine
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125866958684250/ETM8edpWsAAhfHp.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125892019781652/IMG_20200330_004208.jpg
[img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125866958684250/ETM8edpWsAAhfHp.png[/img]
[img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/387764227965976579/695125892019781652/IMG_20200330_004208.jpg[/img]