GentlemanJon
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Signed Up March 1, 2014
Last Posted October 1, 2019 at 12:14 PM
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#24 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion

#22 thinking about it some more, it might be possible to build up some kind of profile matching log events to stv observations to reliably identify roamer initiations that don't result in their death so you can include times it's just a distraction. Logs don't even include positional information for damage though so it's hard to imagine it being possible.

Ideally you could do a basketball style +/- which would just absorb all that unrecorded activity into a general contribution to positive achievements like capping points, but TF2 players are never substituted so it doesn't really work. It might be possible with offclasses which muuki would be particularly useful for. Adjusting for lopsided numbers of players would be hard though.

I've also considered making a win probability model that looks at things like score, time left, territory owned and players up and calculates win chances, and therefore the win value of any action players take. Not much point investing that kind of time given the way the game is going though.

posted about 7 years ago
#23 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion
AdebisiCheers. I was just interested to see what you'd do.

I'm an econometrician, as it happens

Well, what I would really do is point to Mike posting pocket soldier numbers from the roamer role and tell them to get good

posted about 7 years ago
#21 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion
AdebisiPresumably not literally.

That's the problem when you're doing data analysis, non-literal descriptions aren't really going to have any relationship to the information available.

Given there's no way to clearly detect a bomb from the logs and I'm not going to get into parsing demos, I'd probably do something like look at the result of team fights x seconds after any given time he died in a certain situation - all players up or whatever - and see if there was something there, see if his team mates had better performance compared to other times the teams were equal and he hadn't just died.

If the space created doesn't produce clearly better performance for his team it's not worth it. It's would be very noisy data though so you probably wouldn't get much, you could do something blunter like compare team stats like net kills when just the roamer was down and look at who is performing best in what is presumably the post-bomb world.

There's a few other ways to approach it that aren't possible in TF2 for other reasons.

posted about 7 years ago
#16 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion
AdebisiI don't think it is useless, just intangible.

Missing everything every single time you bomb would be useless. He doesn't do that, and seeing as it's based on numbers, I don't really have a model for it

posted about 7 years ago
#14 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion
AdebisiHow do you account for players like Muuq who, by his own admission, bomb in, miss everything, but make a tonne of space for others ?

Genuine question. I don't think you can

I imagine he'd survive and get kills if he could, and probably doesn't play as deliberately uselessly as suggested. I'd compare them to other roamers.

posted about 7 years ago
#9 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion
nuzeI think this works pretty well with the exception of high level demo, where a lot more impact in slow games can be had with purely area denial - I've found it's often the case in structured games that good demo performances aren't always reflected in the stats.

If you want the worst example look at Mike playing pocket for the pre i49 Epsilon. Adjusting for healing in a linear way makes him the worst player in the league because his medic almost never died. He received so much healing the possible output can simply never keep up. Epsilon basically hit the rate limit for killing they could output in a game of TF2.

Essentially healing is a diminishing return for pocket players, the more they get the less effect it has on what they can produce. This would need a polynomial equation to model at the very least. Another problem is that it's also a two way relationship, do they get more healing because they're a great player killing all enemies, or do they get more because they're being healed by Mirelin and nobody can kill him? And of course it's susceptible to the pace of the game. Around i49 it was brutally fast with every advantage pushed to the limit. Now there are long stretches of healing that produce no kills or even much damage at all.

These are the kind of things your brain can fuzzily just take into account in a vague way when assessing a log, but producing something concrete that can reliably create meaningful comparisons gets very complicated very quickly.

posted about 7 years ago
#50 ESEA has outlived it's usefulness in TF2 General Discussion
DarkNecridThat said, there's still stuff you could do on the website like affiliate programs to receive cuts off of competitive minded products etc that - combined with keeping a (tiny) portion of the entry fee money would be enough to cover stuff like the website and maybe even some extra servers at a discount. I know Miggy does that affiliate thing with his LAN site and it'd probably be more successful if you had the audience of UGC 6s + ESEA combined on there often.

It's been done on ETF2L for a long time, it could be done better (in terms of generating more revenue) because they have legacy design issues that restrict it but affiliation is unlikely to generate anything meaningful to the scene overall even if the entire comp TF2 player base were on a single website. It's just not a big enough scene any more.

posted about 7 years ago
#47 ESEA has outlived it's usefulness in TF2 General Discussion
DarkNecrid- Is an avenue to provide sponsor advertisements and maybe get some of them on board for some light support. (maybe - somethin akin to what ETF2L had with Thermaltake but for NA)

I think people need to understand the TT thing happened because former head admin Canfo worked for TT and basically provided the sponsorship on very friendly terms. When it comes to securing a real advertiser on purely commercial considerations alone a community website for TF2 is starting from a very difficult position.

posted about 7 years ago
#4 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion
Cyanicdoes this mean I can make excuses for getting 150 dpm on product because if so please keep doing this.

You should say you only cause damage that matters and point to your fabulous positive net kills statistics

Pro tip: If your net kills are also shit, change the subject

posted about 7 years ago
#1 TF2's hidden stats part 1 in TF2 General Discussion

I've learned quite a few things about TF2 stats over the last few years which have never seen the light of day and which nobody else uses. I'm gonna dump this knowledge before the game is completely dead in the occasional thread.

The first one is a stat that deals with a couple of outstanding problems with kill and damage stats. Currently the commonly used 2 are a variation on a ratio like KD or KAD, and the damage output stat DPM. Both of these have problems, the ratio stats can be enormously inflated by passive play. Take the following two example players:


           Kills       Deaths       KD
Plyr A       15          5           3
Plyr B       3           1           3

Clearly Player A has had a far bigger impact on the game here but the cowardly Player B who hid the whole game and just picked off a few players has exactly the same KD suggesting they have achieved something equally important. This is an extreme example, and for the most part players in competitive matches don't tend to do this, but when compiling event statistics there are always less effective players that pop up near the top because they play conservatively.

Because players tend not to milk their KD too hard though, it does make it a pretty good stat to compare to because it's fairly strong as a win/loss indicator. If something happened like players being made aware that they were being ranked on KD in some way then they might start to try to distort it.

Similarly with DPM a player that religiously spams chokes and corners will pick up a ton of extra damage that doesn't really contribute anything particularly significant to their team, and probably helps their opponents build uber. A player that only causes damage when taking fights has more meaningful damage stats, and the crossbow means that damage built up from spamming almost never sticks.

My goal was to find something that had more relevance to the result, a performance stat that had a clear mathematical correlation to the final result. The first attempt was moderately successful, taking the logic that high damage meant that a player was being more aggressive (even spamming chokes requires a player to be positioned slightly riskily) then combining that with KD would produce something useful.

Attempt 1: DPM * KD

This was OK, there's a tendency to favour heal heavy spamming pockets and demos that build up damage, but if they're not winning fights they're also punished hard. Similarly it also sidelines scouts a little because their damage stats tend not to be competitive with the spamming classes. It also has a reasonable correlation to games won and lost. The problem with this isn't really that it's particularly inaccurate, it's that it's conceptual basis doesn't describe a game winning advantage. Damage is something that happens by playing the game, and it's being modified to link it to something relevant.

Returning to basic concepts, most games have 3 elements to consider when modelling them - material, position and time. In TF2 5cp or koth material is largely dominant, having more players is almost always a big deal, and time and positional considerations only decisively trump those in niche situations. And also we don't have stats for positional considerations from logs, so there's nothing we can do for that anyway.

So if we're thinking about material, how does that manifest itself in TF2? Teams are denied material (players, any charged up abilities over time like uber and banners, etc) by players being killed and sent to the spawn queue. So we're really looking for a player stat that reflects how much extra time on the field they generated for their team with a player advantage in the game, and this is kills. Because their own frag counts against their team, it's a net frags statistic.

Net Frags per minute: (Kills - Deaths) / Time Played

This looks extremely simple, almost childishly so, but the simple +/- approach creates something that links more clearly to in-game advantages than the other ratios and secondary activity stats do, and has a stronger link to wins and losses.

So if we return to our example players


           Kills       Deaths      Net Kills
Plyr A       15          5           +10
Plyr B       3           1           +2

Player A's vast additional contribution to the game is now reflected here. Making the stat per minute makes it possible to compare time spent off classing, and compare from game to game, and it is very simple to read. Statistically it correlates with win loss the best from the candidate stats including KD.

It has some obvious weaknesses. It's susceptible to kill stealing, there are some situations where it's right to die, and a player that baits out their team can still inflate their personal stats at their team's expense. However it doesn't promote meaningless spam or passive play, in fact it promotes finding the maximum point of aggression you can without compromising survivability and working with your team. It also tends to reward scouts which seems right as they're broadly considered the most powerful class in 6v6.

If we look at a real world example http://logs.tf/1739763 pot8o is on +12 whereas YppY is on +8, they're only separated by 0.2 in KD but pot8o is a clear 50% ahead on Net Kills. Given pot8o was doing this from the low heals flank scout position it's a creditable performance. Much of it may have been cleanup work from the sacrifice of others but if he doesn't hit those shots then they lose the game. He also had a solid stint on sniper.

When looking at logs and considering the net kills (and per minute when looking at class breakdowns) I've found it does help to throw a new light on things and provides a solid link to the in-game advantages a player achieved.

posted about 7 years ago
#84 What is the (possible) future for high level tf2? in TF2 General Discussion
yerb... valve is a business, why would they allow their employees to dump money in their own individual passion (ex esports). people

Not sure if serious, but if you are you don't know anything about how Valve operates. The individual passion of it's developers is what it's built on.

posted about 7 years ago
#68 What is the (possible) future for high level tf2? in TF2 General Discussion
FUNKeI really, really, really want to know what's eating up valve's time. I would have known, if they had ever made that what we're up to blogpost. Of course, they didn't. Their community is unarguably suffering from their absence, the relevancy of competitive itself has teetered on eggshells for years, and even now we have no clue if there's even any future to hold out for.

Valve has never been relevant to the survival of competitive TF2 with the single exception of the Highlander challenge and the novelty of a medal that brought a lot of new players in, and that was run by ETF2L (specifically ashkan) - all Valve did was say "yes"

posted about 7 years ago
#31 who is the greatest e-athlete ever in Esports
SpaceCadetThresh

Shame he didn't play for a bit longer, he was so far ahead of the competition it was ridiculous

posted about 7 years ago
#77 Who is the best tf2 caster of all time and why in TF2 General Discussion
SpaceCadetCommanderX may be the most overlooked and underrated caster in the community. He has a good voice for casting and has a lot of experience. IMO he was tailor made for being a color commentator but could main cast just as well. CommanderX would regularly say why or how some push or tactic didn't work in a quick and accurate way, while not lingering too long at the expense of the current action. Not many casters can do this well and they just keep talking about a push that failed 90 seconds ago while new plays are currently happening and not being casted accurately.

Very underrated, also possessed of a sly wit. His description of Greg's spy play on Freight will stay with me

posted about 7 years ago
#10 NA ugc team numbers compared to esea in TF2 General Discussion
DarkNecrid... and I'm currently taking a break from numbers/graphs to do actual fun things.

I don't know what this says about me

posted about 7 years ago
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