http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/ymel2.png

Thinking Clinton takes Florida and Nevada, not sure about some of the northern states or Arizona. I've got a couple of bottles of kellerbier ready, but Florida is probably gonna take too long to be counted for me to stay up.

nice pub clips

I don't think you can just take the distribution of a single length rod; you'd have to take the distribution for an independent sum of 18 normal distributions, divided by 18, which gets you a new normal distribution with mean 196.8 and standard deviation 1/18*sqrt(18*(1.7)^2).

I suck at stats though, so take this with a huge grain of salt.

EDIT: Plugging that into WA gives me the same value farnsworth suggested.

WolframAlpha saves the day again

http://i.imgur.com/dXTaYys.png

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/06/politics/comey-tells-congress-fbi-has-not-changed-conclusions/

wow what a shocker

http://cdn.bulbagarden.net/upload/thumb/3/3e/096Drowzee.png/250px-096Drowzee.png

drowzee is bae

http://www.virtuadopt.com/images/big_adoptbase/23-2.png

http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/pokemon/images/3/34/Ninetales.jpg

Since we're discussing 538, does anyone know whether they factor in early voting? Obviously you can't expect an early vote to automatically fall in line with the state of the polls when it was cast, but maybe there are tools to price in that sort of stuff.

I couldn't even get past the first paragraph.

That sounds like a needless amount of work when you could just change the person's answer to Clinton after the call. If there's tape review, they'd pick up on the phone being hung up for no reason too.

In short, I call BS.

are the bottom team ghosts? no thanks

Planet Money did a pretty good podcast on the economic situation in Venezuela last week. It doesn't go hugely in depth, but it's a primer for those that haven't kept up with the news and only have 20 minutes to get brought up to speed.

#515 Clinton sure isn't having a lot of trouble talking about policy issues. But hey, if it's just Trumps 'temperament' that prevents him from forming a coherent sentence every time someone calls him the sad little man that he is, having a president like that sounds like a great idea!

'I totally have credible sources for my claims (which I'm not going to name, but they definitely are out there) and despite the huge conspiracy that worked together to keep Hillary from going to jail for multiple felonies these sources are easy to find using the very site I just claimed is in on aforementioned conspiracy. By the way, unlike all those other media organizations, the site whose chairman is the head of the Trump campaign is definitely unbiased, honest'

Of course this isn't going to convince diehard Trump fans, but he's already doing bad with women voters, who are absolutely essential if he wants to win, and this definitely didn't improve his chances. If Sunday goes anything more than disastrous for Clinton (which unless Trump magically started learning how to prepare for a debate shouldn't be a problem), her campaign will start focusing on critical senate races. Trump simply doesn't have enough time to regain the ground he lost after the first debate.

Odds aside, from a European perspective it is absolutely mind-boggling how a clown like Trump got past the primaries. His policy positions are awful and exactly zero of the made up charges against Clinton (Foundation, emails, Benghazi, BILL IS A RAPIST!!!11!) have turned up anything substantial. Thank fucking God we're unlikely to have to deal with a POTUS who thinks NATO is a protection racket and that trade surplus is the central issue for economic policy.

FTL
Battle for Wesnoth if you are into TBS
Europa Universalis

I still haven't found the game that has the perfect balance between actually being engaging, but not so much that I just start ignoring the movie/show/stream I'm watching.