the mid-open bubble bloodbath starts tonight! i think there's only three matches tonight that DON'T have an effect on playoff seeding.
i bow to radium's superior formatting and great write-up from yesterday morning, but here is my two cents anyway:
radium
MATCH OF THE WEEK
Randy and Chums (9-5) vs. open is hard/RUSH (9-5)
Match rating: 9/10. Consider this: After starting 9-0 and having the #1 overall ranking, a loss here for what used to be RUSH will push them in what could wind up being a premature elimination game against Basics Octopus Emporium. Things are even more desperate for Randy and Chums, since they're going to face the 11-3 Playground Tactics in the final game of the season. Neither team is in any kind of form to speak of - which means this could turn into a desperate, scrappy affair. This is actually a great game to cast in my opinion as you're going to see playoff-level TF2 one week early. Both sides have buckets of experience relative to 80% of Open - so therefore I cannot give a "crunch time" edge either way. I'm going to say that Randy and Chums are a marginal favorite pre-match since I'm not exactly sure what lineup the former RUSH squad will decide to use. Randy and Chums, on the other hand, have found a standing six and SHOULD look more cohesive as result. This is hugely important on cp_granary in which team discipline is often more important than individual playmaking.
If RUSH were 100% focused into this game (and only they themselves can answer this), then I would take them in a second since I think they've got a small talent advantage. Unfortunately I'm not sold enough on either their focus (which is hard to gauge) or who they're starting (which isn't stable as it used to be - that IS verifiable) to overlook a disciplined kraka AND an invite-proven player at the controls (blackymonster on medic).
Players to watch: kraka, reimu
clearly the match of the week here, for sure! radium covered all the meat and potatoes of the match, and i would only really like to add that the loser of this match is going to be in a precarious position to be knocked out of playoffs for good. i will also say another player to watch is drcameltoe, the demo for RUSH. while making some questionable bombs during out match last week, he definitely made some big plays that turned a few rounds over, and shouldn't be ignored. the kid has some great pipes.
another close match IMO mentioned briefly by radium is going to be trans-autistic railroad vs new faith church gaming tonight at 7:30p PST. i haven't really been able to scrim new faith church for a few weeks so I have no idea how they are looking lately, but I know after the whole FFL debacle they will definitely be looking to take wins away from their last two matches this week. breloom & his band of merry men looked good last night after scrimming them through two long granary marathons. conductor is going to have good presence on mid, hopefully keeping scouts out of the fight long enough for his soldiers to do some work. abramelin (how the hell do you say this guy's name?!) and kohaku are both solid scouts, but i fear they will be looking to wrack up those cap points, as granary is historically horrible for scouts. excited to see these two teams match up, it should be close.