the cs scene has always been relutant to change
same stuff happened from 1.6 to source, takes a while to grow into, but source blatantly sucked and the devs learned from the mistake
i still think you cant compare introducing a gigantic update to a game on its "early" days to introducing one to a game as old as tf2

tf2 is free to play its essentially ageless, new players will continue to come, its still the best free fps on the market

Let's do some basic math here since Muselk seems unable to provide much math to support his claim.

TF2 has an average player base of 50,000 players per day on at any given time. Now lets use Muselks assumption that up to 20% are interested in comp, but for arguments sake lets say 10%. So we have 5,000 players playing at any given time. Now lets assume there are 3 main global regions (NA, EU, Asia).

NA would represent the largest player base, and based upon the total steam bandwidth usage, NA accounts for almost exactly 50% of total global steam related bandwidth. So that would put the NA player base at ~2500 players playing comp at any given time. Now lets assume there might be 5 different main skill levels for the games matchmaking and balancing. So that would account for an average of 500 players in each skill level group on average That's enough for over 40 6v6 games on average per skill level in NA at any given time, many more than that during peak hours, and far fewer during off peak hours.

This math is using several assumptions for player base, and the percentage of players that will regularly play comp. Actual figures will vary, but its a decent ball park estimate. This also does not take into consideration any increased hype, marketing efforts, further tf2 updates that expand the overall player base.

In my opinion TF2 official comp can succeed if valve wants it to. If they actually put effort into it and throw some money into it, perhaps sponsor a few tournaments etc. If they continue to have just a few devs dragging their heels developing little to nothing, then it will be a fail.

yo all of your math is wrong. 20% of 50k is 10k, each region has periods of higher activity so at peak hours the majority of the userbase is NA rather than just 50%, CS has 18 skill ranks and tf2 has 16 player ranks in beta so i cant imagine there would be 5 ranks.

Didnt read any of this thread but my honest opinion about mm is it will spike briefly, a few more teams, but i dont expect esea to see any of that. With a f2p league as an option all the godawful mm players will flock there. Wont save the game but will prolong its life

p bad opinion overall. Even if all 1/10th of current tf2 players play MM enough to be interested in becoming competitive, you're looking at easily 10x more new players in the scene than there are now. That's assuming the game doesn't grow at all as a result of MM.

youre assuming MM and 6s are the same. There's definitely gunna be a lot of dropout between the 2

you also have to remember that just because people played a MM with no class limits and 0 weapon bans doesn't mean they will automatically jump right into a 6's ruleset and weapon ban system with no questions asked and just be happy with whatever restrictions that are put on them. The fact that the common redditor/pubber doesn't like competitive or doesn't even know about it at all isn't gonna help the scene in the long run. The common TF2 player doesn't exactly seek out information to something that doesn't relate to and/or interest them.

I mean.. Name one game muselk is good at... He's not good at TF2, he's not good at CSGO which he compares TF2 to, he's not good at overwatch which he left TF2 for... Like who is he to say anything about any game's competitive scene?

Its not about him being good at the game, its the fact that most fans of casual TF2 youtubers take their words as gospel, so when the common muselk fanboy sees a video/tweet by him saying "MM is shit", they will believe him no questions asked.

Alrighty then you're a fucking casual idiot who doesn't know shit, your opinion doesn't matter. He literally gave us a reason not to take him seriously

lol I was actually calculating it for 10% originally but wrote 20%. mb. Edited.

But just because GO has 18 skill ranks and TF2 has 16 player ranks, doesn't mean that there actually will be or even need to be 16 actual MMR ranks for TF2. For example 6 players in a group queue together, they are ranked at various ranks but their average rank is 13/16. It can pool them together into a game on a skill scale of 1 to 5. 1 being noobie and 5 being very good and place them into a level 4 skilled game. Their win or loss, or overall performance relative to the ranks of the other players will then determine how much XP they gain or lose.

Smash is a strange thing, if you think about it.

As someone that played from between 2008 to 2012, there were a lot of interesting circumstances surrounding Smash. From my anecdotal experience, my state's (Oregon) power ranking was basically the "non-random" players of the state, given that our only monthly tournament usually had a turnout of <32 people, and venues really not wanting to host us for a variety of reasons. Most tournaments were house-events from either a 20-something year old or at a card game shop that wasn't too keen on the video game teens. Something else during that era that was happening was Brawl sucking resources away from Melee, where Melee was the side event. Most of the original Brawl-boom players eventually either left the scene once the game started to see events that were <16 people with the top five always being the same players and/or characters at every event, local or regional.

As Brawl began to die, a lot of people went to Melee. My personal path was Melee->Brawl->Melee. Playing Melee back then, for me, was asking my dad to take me to a dude's house that he didn't know, and who was about four years older than me (I was 16 at the time), so I could grind practice with him and a couple other people for the entire weekend (the top two on the PR at the time). It definitely wasn't like it is now, Melee has become significantly more accessible with netplay, ROM/ROMHacks like 20XX, and such. Back then, at least for awhile, the entire unit was a hell of a commodity for most people. This is also before Nintendo did a re-release of the GCN controller, so finding a new or good one was very difficult. Gamecubes were still about $80 USD to grab one of, and Melee's value never really went down from $50 once people decided they wanted it.

I was going to write more, but I feel it wouldn't add much.

One of my good friends from smash is one of the dudes that shoved a ton of money into that race for EVO. Went by the name Grunt and he was offshore in the Navy at the time. Really chill guy.

This guy is Australian.

You cant expect him to have intelligent input

With a fanbase of almost 800k subs I would expect him to be more careful before spouting bullshit that could potentially hurt the game he actually made his following from.

With that said, matchmaking will not work out until it's a final stable version, in its current iteration it's far too buggy, people abandoning left and right, etc, and I've yet to play 2 consecutive games without issues which lead me to not play it at all for now, and I guess thats one of the reasons the queue is so small.

It also wont take off significantly until valve takes some action to actively support the scene, case in point: csgo had lower numbers than tf2 months after launch and it was actually in a downtrend, losing players to 1.6 and source, it wasn't until the weapon skin update and the first major valve sponsored tournament that they actually saw any growth

still no fov above 90
still no optimisation + forced dx9
still have to hack the hud to use transparent viewmodels (built in option was promised)
default hud stll doesnt show alive teammate and enemy number without lookin at the scoreboard
2016 and still no outline on the lowres built in crosshair
mm servers are terrible, but not as terrible as joining on a random asian server with 220ms
people cannot rank up cause they cant win since someone always rq. you can only loose rank basicly
every second hud and every plugin breaks fuckin matchmaking
no map pick option, but more attack defend bullshit (once again forced on the player)
also fuck every tickrate below 100

valve keeps breaking the huds with every update, keeps adding even more casual events and hats...yet here we are still having a lot of teams playin in leages and cups even is its 6v6masterrace or lolhl. what muselk doesnt see, that matchmaking is a bridge beetween the real comp scene and being a pubhero. matchmakings purpose is to help people reach their potential in a coordinated situation without randomcrits and all that bullshit.
...and yes, matchmaking will fail probably big time since valve listens to scum at reddit, but comp will live on.

ps: fuck the default font as well

Just out of interest, when/where did Valve promise "built in" transparent viewmodels?

It's amazing how when the game is doing well there is always an influential person coming along, trying to spread his pessimism in the community.

FOV above 90 will not be a thing.

I think he means viewmodel FOV.

Pretty sure b4nny mentioned they were interested in potentially building them into the game in his original matchmaking announcement video iirc

Don't worry, nobody with any following no matter how big will affect how MM works out. He's baiting for responses to maintain his profile, this irrelevant non-entity of an empty vessel makes the loudest noise

What Jon said a thousand times over. Muselk claiming that MM will fail will not make MM fail, he's shouting fabricated statistics into the void in the hopes that the void gives him a thumbs-up and tells him to keep up the great content. He's made himself fairly irrelevant in TF2, he's not managed to make himself particularly relevant in Overwatch, even after moving to a different game entirely he's still living a hundred miles into STAR_'s shadow (for good reason, too, STAR is actually charismatic), his greatest accomplishment still seems to be co-hosting a gaming show on Disney XD and sincere congratulations to him for that but the XD says it all there really.

b4nny has information directly from Valve, Muselk has information directly from his ass. I know which I'd rather listen to.

Fuck him for making me have to change this, though.

http://i.imgur.com/I60oDyz.png

gtfo mr muselk

i mean if valve actually gave a shit mm would be out already, theyve been promising it for how long now? (i actually lost track, its been too long)

just compare it to ow, blizzard actually gives a fuck and ranked is coming out on june's end (game came out in march, not 8 years ago), as much as it enrages everyone here (and me too don't get me wrong i fucking love tf2) this kid is right

gtfo mr muselk

gtfo mr muselk

Hey liko, how's brazil? :)

is this another +frag farm

http://disneyxd.disney.com.au/muselk yeah baby