GentlemanJon
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SteamID64 76561198045803959
SteamID3 [U:1:85538231]
SteamID32 STEAM_0:1:42769115
Country United Kingdom
Signed Up March 1, 2014
Last Posted October 1, 2019 at 12:14 PM
Posts 1307 (0.3 per day)
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#47 Faceit news post about matchmaking algorithm in TF2 General Discussion
b4nnyThat's probably the most perfect demonstration of exactly what I was talking about lmao

So you ask to be taken seriously in a position of leadership, ask for people's help, publicly shit on their work, tell them they are irrelevant and then it proves some kind of point you are trying to make when you receive a single, albeit terse, negative comment from an affected party who literally a couple of days ago was feeding you excellent promotional ideas you have said you intend to implement.

If I could see it coming why couldn't you? Just something to think about

posted about 7 years ago
#43 Faceit news post about matchmaking algorithm in TF2 General Discussion
b4nnyIt doesn't matter how hard anyone worked. They should be proud of their websites, but their time has passed. This goes way beyond all the personal grudges and hurt feelings that everyone in the TFTV illuminati insists on bringing into every single possible project that they don't have complete control over. Eventually you guys will have to accept that I'm not the bad guy. Zzz

It's got nothing to do with any specific outspoken personalities you may have a problem with, these are people who have been quietly getting along with helping you right now.

posted about 7 years ago
#40 Faceit news post about matchmaking algorithm in TF2 General Discussion

B4nny there's no problem with you being a FaceIt salesman but you might want to hold back on publicly announcing your campaign to destroy the hard work of community members when you're also asking the same community members to run FaceIt cups for you in the run up to Rewind lan, even if they have conspicuously appeared to take the moral high ground previously.

You might find this kind of thing has a negative affect on their morale.

posted about 7 years ago
#3 Fantasy TF2 for rewind LAN? in LAN Discussion

Don't know if the tournament servers will have logs.tf integration, how stable teams will be far enough in advance to put all the relevant data in, or if I'll have an admin for it

posted about 7 years ago
#73 Get Europe to Rewind in California! in TF2 General Discussion
DreamboatI'll do my best to fill your very large vlog shoes

Remember to take the lens cap off and you're ahead of the game already

posted about 7 years ago
#497 Fantasy TF2: Let’s do this! in Projects

Beater's Herculean task has finally come to a close, the final log has been uploaded and Fantasy TF2 for ETF2L Season 25 is over. The top 3 are:

Le sang, la cervelle de leur morts! takes 1st place for Medico
Aeroplane trolls get 2nd for Dubbs
Fully Erect get 3rd for Kilgors, just beating Kaidus into 4th

The pixel trophies have been duly awarded, bathe in your fantasy TF2 immortality gentlemen

A big thanks Beater as always who did all the work, as well as casting and frag clipping the season

posted about 7 years ago
#15 Help Bren get to LAN in LAN Discussion
BrenIf you or anyone else has anymore constructive criticism drop me a message because I do genuinely want to improve as a caster thanks.

I miss the delving too greedily and too deep myself

posted about 7 years ago
#17 Elo Hell in Esports
SetsulYeah, you didn't understand what I meant.

You're still in the mindset "most ratings are correct, false ratings will quickly be corrected".
My point was if all ratings are random (which means most are completely wrong) then it'll not sort itself out quickly. It's just self perpetuating randomness.

Going back to my original points:
1. Rating systems are rather difficult because in most games results aren't 100% comparable and there's no real benchmark that you can use to get a few initial guaranteed correct ratings that you need for the system to work.
2. The global average winrate must be 50%. You will not deviate far from that in a perfect system and you won't either in a random system. So unless it's a system that's somehow far worse than random (or random with huge overreactions) your elo will only change very slowly if at all (within a certain range obviously) unless you actually improve. Which is one of the 2 main points of the elo/rating system.

"I have 50% winrate / my elo is not changing -> I must be stuck in elo hell" is simply not a logical conclusion. It could be a terrible system (or a localized area of randomness, e.g. all players start with the same elo in the "middle" and it needs some time to sort that out) or just as well Dunning-Kruger.

Any rating system that's not completely broken will get everyone close to 50% winrate. That's the easy part. The difficult part is to produce close games. If that happens then you can reasonably assume that the original goal, accurately rating the players' skill, was met.

So that's what I mean. If there's completely shut outs (both wins and losses for you) then the rating system is not working properly, if you have mostly close games and even very close games then it probably is. Your elo won't change much either way, but one means you actually are in elo hell and the other means you're exactly where you should be and should stop bitching and start improving if you want to get higher elo.

I don't think I've said anything that contradicts anything you've said. I just wanted to point out that at the start of a player's career in a rating system they should have a clear period of adjustment which should be evidence that they are either being moved up or moved down the rating system to their appropriate level, and it will probably be characterised by a consistency of results that don't appear thereafter.

The only bone of "contention" if you want to put it like that is that some games will have more random effects or meta games that don't produce close games no matter how close in skill players really are. These would probably be fairly low skill ceiling games anyway.

posted about 7 years ago
#15 Elo Hell in Esports
Setsul#9
I'm not sure if you didn't understand what I meant or if I don't understand what you mean.

I'm talking about completely random placement. So you get matched with a mix of far better, far worse and somewhat similarly skilled players against another random mix. The wins and losses will basically be random data. You will end up with ~50% winrate and wildly fluctuating elo.

If the system is good there should not be any long streaks, not if you get another one in the opposite direction or equal length right after that. If you were placed to low then a short streak is normal, maybe 2 or 3 losses after that if you overshoot and then pretty much 50% winrate. But if you were placed correctly, go up e.g. 400 elo and then go down 400 elo something is seriously wrong. Your chances of winning the later games were single digit percentages according to your original elo so if that were correct you would've just had a 1 in 100000 streak. Your elo must've been wrong. But if you then lose all that elo again then either you had a 1 in 100000 negative streak or your original elo was correct. If that happens regularly and/or to a fair share of the playerbase then the system is probably more random that accurate.

Assuming no random placement matches occur, if we make the assumption that a new player is low skill and the system adds them at medium skill then they will lose their first game. The system will reduce it's opinion of their skill and try again, they will still lose. This will continue until they also start to win games at which point the system will stabilise it's opinion of their skill and their results should start to even out.

This assumes that the system is not tuned to overreact to their performance and actually reaches a stable position. When they first enter the system they should definitely experience a set of similar results based on the differential between the system's assumption about their starting skill and their actual skill unless those things happen to match which won't be the case for most players.

There is also the matter of population movement. In a system where all the players start at the bottom (a season for example) different skill level players will experience change differently. The best or most dedicated (activity is always a factor in this kind of situation) should very quickly form a vanguard that separates itself from the main bulk of players, but a medium skill player will spend more time sat in the general body of players including the weakest because they are all dominated by the better players.

A regularly resetting skill ladder is an example of this kind of situation. A mature rating ladder that doesn't reset doesn't really see this problem. This is why some games that have seasons use a placement match system to separate their players so they can more quickly arrive at a skill appropriate level without this experience. In TF2 if you look beyond match results it's fairly easy to bracket players quite quickly off the back of 10 games or so.

So depending on how the placement matches system work, a game with seasons that uses them could well produce the 50/50 experience you discuss. A system that relies purely on it's rating system and has a mature ladder must make an assumption about new player skill at the start which will very likely vary from their objective skill that should produce an initial adjustment that creates a streak of results that reflect that.

Rating systems have moved on from Elo of course, it's not really used any more and dominates things like Chess for historical reasons rather than quality.

Streakiness is another consideration, and is related to random elements of the game being measured. Hearthstone is a notorious example where the best players who operate at a very high level can still lose many games in a row due purely to random events inherent in the game design, and the way that those random events can snowball into a huge advantage. Competitively configured TF2 is probably pretty stable in this regard, the vanilla version has a lot more luck involved.

posted about 7 years ago
#9 Elo Hell in Esports
Setsul#5
The problem is that if elo is completely random you will get exactly the same 50% winrate.

To not be able to tell the difference you would need to have been placed by accident at exactly your level (assuming the system is not random). If you begin by having a streak of good or poor results then even out to 50/50 then you almost certainly have been placed in an appropriate skill bracket. A player's whole experience over time matters.

Regarding rolls vs close games that depends a lot on the nature of the game and it's propensity for one sided results, and the effect of other factors on that such as (assuming a team game) whether having a very large skill gap between players on one team will render it more likely to lose than the other even though overall team skills may appear equal.

posted about 7 years ago
#7 Arm position to avoid RSI in Q/A Help

Although the question refers specifically to RSI from mouse usage, if you do a lot of typing a natural keyboard layout will help reduce the stress on that wrist as well. Mechanical versions are very hard to find though.

posted about 7 years ago
#16 CastingEssentials Spectator Plugin in Projects
samifaceDo we have your permission to use this for Rewind? We're building our own overlay but would love to have this!

The license on github says that you can use it

posted about 7 years ago
#9 CastingEssentials Spectator Plugin in Projects
omniTry logging into Steam

Why would me being logged into steam make a difference?

posted about 7 years ago
#7 CastingEssentials Spectator Plugin in Projects
pazerAs far as I know, tsc had told essentials.tf that he was no longer interested in maintaining StatusSpec, and I've tried to contact him on Steam for almost 2 months at this point, so I don't really see that happening.

Try twitter

posted about 7 years ago
#36 Sauna slayers about to get disqualified?? in TF2 General Discussion
shorasI hope you're trolling atm.

I don't know, I've completely lost track of what I was talking about and who you are. Thread derailing complete.

posted about 7 years ago
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